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August 2, 2002
Tesoro Petroleum has been under pressure since its
disappointing first quarter earnings release. Weak margins, scheduled
downtime and integration costs associated with the purchase of Golden
Eagle were blamed. In response to investor's concerns regarding the
Company's debt load, management clearly and decisively articulated a
$500 million debt reduction program that is focused on several key
strategic initiatives. Management expects to reduce working capital by
$50 million and operating costs by $10 million by the end of 2002. The
Company also plans to divest several non-core assets, including the
Marine Services operations, and reduce capital expenditures. Finally,
the Company expects to achieve $10 million in synergies from the Golden
Eagle acquisition by yearend and an additional $25 million in 2003.
Results for the second quarter of 2002 were
recently released on August 1. Tesoro reported a net loss of $0.28 per
share, including acquisition-related pretax charges of $0.06 per share.
More importantly, both industry "crack spreads' and gross margins
improved from the first quarter of 2002. As expected, the Company was in
compliance with its bank covenants, ending the quarter with $43 million
in cash and repaying $15 million of debt. Investors must wait patiently
for management to deliver on its promises before the stock can rebound
from these extremely depressed price levels.
November 15, 2002
On November 7th Tesoro reported that it lost $0.24
a share in the third quarter compared to $0.79 a share profit in the
same quarter last year. Lower year over year earnings reflect lower
refining margins from a year ago. Tesoro's consolidated realized
refining margin was $5.60/bbl, or 26% below last year. Despite the poor
quarter, margins have improved since mid October. This fact has not
escaped investors and as a result, Tesoro's share price has rallied
significantly.
As part of the amended credit agreement, Tesoro
has committed to asset sales of approximately $175 million by the end of
the year. Tesoro and Williams Energy Partners are currently in
discussions with the Federal Trade Commission regarding approval of the
sale of the Company's Northern Great Plains Product System for $110
million in cash. Under the terms of the agreement, Tesoro has the right
to enter into discussions with other potential buyers and complete an
alternate transaction under more favourable terms. In addition, on
November 1, 2002 the Company announced the sale of 70 Northern
California retail stations for $67 million in cash, including working
capital of $5 million. These divestitures will ensure that Tesoro
complies with its amended bank covenants.
One of the best indicators of the profitability of
refiners is the "crack spread", the difference between the
cost of crude oil and the selling price of the refined products,
typically gasoline and heating oil. The crack spread had fallen from the
middle of 2001 and bottomed in August of 2002. Margins have now
stabilized, as crude oil costs have declined and gasoline and heating
oil prices recovered. Because of the Company's high degree of operating
and financial leverage, should this trend continue the market could well
be surprised by Tesoro's earnings growth in 2003 and beyond.
March 28, 2003
Tesoro shares have rallied significantly since our
last update in November with management announcing that it had reached
its stated goal of selling $200 million in assets by the end of 2002.
Also, refining margins in the West Coast have improved considerably due
to higher gasoline prices in California and a colder than usual winter
in the Southwest. In December, Tesoro sold its Northern Great Plains
Product System to KANEB Pipe Line Partners for $100 million and later
announced it had reached an agreement to sell and lease back 30 of the
company's retail outlets in Alaska for $41 million. Tesoro had already
raised $67 million in November with the sale of 70 of its service
stations located in Northern California.
Less than six months ago refining margins were at
their lowest levels in five years and debt had reached an unmanageable
level at Tesoro. The company was forced to amend its credit agreement,
which required management to sell some of the company's assets and limit
its capital expenditures. As a result, Tesoro shares decreased to $1.24
and it appeared as though Tesoro was headed for bankruptcy. Since then
however, management has delivered on its promise to rejuvenate the
company. In addition to the sale of $200 million in assets, Tesoro has
reduced its term debt by over $140 million, cut capital expenditures by
$70 million and expenses by $24 million. These events have not gone unnoticed by
investors since Tesoro shares have risen to over $7 in the meantime. If
refining margins remain firm and if management continues to make debt
reduction a main priority, we believe Tesoro shares have the potential
for further appreciation.
May 2, 2003
The key to profitability for Tesoro is its
refining margin or what is known as the “crack spread”. The spread
is the difference between the cost of crude oil and the selling price of
the refined product, mainly gasoline and heating oil. The higher the
crack spread the higher the likelihood of earning money. The opposite is
also true when crack spreads are low. When this occurs, as it did last
summer when the crack spread reached a five-year low, earning money can
be very difficult. This was particularly true for Tesoro due to the
fixed cost nature of its business. The result is an erratically
profitable business and even more so, a very erratic stock price.
After careful consideration, we became concerned
about the current refining margin environment as well as Tesoro’s very
high debt level. Tesoro’s debt, recently rated BB by Standard and
Poor, now stands at almost four times its market capitalization. With
such high leverage, even small changes in the crack spread can lead to
large fluctuations in Tesoro’s earnings. This high sensitivity to the
crack spread has led to a wide disparity in opinion by industry experts
as to the net asset value of Tesoro’s stock.
For most of 2003, refining margins have recovered
due to unusually cold temperatures, which increased demand for heating
oil in December-February, and a sharp reduction in net imports owing to
the Venezuelan oil workers’ strike. In addition, West Coast margins
have been particularly strong due to maintenance-related plant downtime.
We believe, however, that the recovery in refined margins may be short
lived. Temperatures are starting to warm up, refinery maintenance work
is ending and refining operations in Venezuela are returning to normal.
Due to these concerns we have sold our shares in
Tesoro Petroleum. Despite a nearly six-fold increase in the share price
from its low of $1.24 in August, we sold at nearly $3 below our cost. In
retrospect, we may have overestimated management’s ability to pay back
its debt after the Golden Eagle purchase last year. In fact, we now
believe management probably overpaid for those assets. Although we have
taken a loss on this particular investment, we prefer to be prudent.
Tesoro has now evolved into a high risk, high reward situation. Our
preference now is to use the proceeds to purchase a company with less
financial risk and less exposure to an exceedingly unpredictable
commodity spread.
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