|
October 26, 2001
In an extremely difficult economic environment,
Teck Cominco released its third quarter operating and financial results.
Unfortunately, with the manufacturing sector mired in a downturn, weak
demand for base metals led to depressed selling prices. The decline in
zinc prices to US$0.37 from US$0.53 per pound and the decline in copper
prices to US$0.68 from US$0.81 had a particularly significant impact
throughout the quarter. Net earnings before unusual items were $17
million or $0.10 per share, excluding a $122 million (after-tax) charge
in the quarter, which was related to non-operating properties in Mexico,
Chile and Turkey. On a more positive note, Teck Cominco continued to
benefit from the sale of surplus power at the Trail facility. Further,
coal operations were particularly strong as both price and volume
increases were realized in the quarter. These two segments contributed
approximately 90% of total operating profit for the period.
Despite a difficult quarter, Teck Cominco
generated $75 million of cash from operations compared to $21 million a
year ago. Even with a $315 million expense related to the merger of Teck
and Cominco, net debt remained well below most industry peers at 27% of
net debt plus equity. Going forward, Teck Cominco has a balanced
portfolio of high quality assets that should ensure an above average
growth profile. Eventually, a rebound in the manufacturing sector will
stimulate base metals to advance from current price levels and earnings
will return to more normalized levels.
March 22, 2002
Teck Cominco has participated in a cyclical rally
since early in the fourth quarter of 2001, concurrent with an improving
outlook for the North American and global economies. Generally, base
metal prices have stabilized on the back of production curtailments and
better-than-expected economic data. However, zinc markets have remained
weak and prices are barely at breakeven levels for most producers.
Although the supply and demand balance has yet to show signs of real
improvement, Teck's management is expecting China, one of the world's
strongest economies in 2001, to soon become a net importer of zinc
concentrate. This would obviously have a positive impact on metal prices
and Teck's earnings going forward.
In the meantime, the importance of Teck's
diversified portfolio of assets was demonstrated when the Company
reported fiscal 2001 and fourth quarter results that were slightly
better than expectations. Essentially, weakness from the zinc and copper
operations was offset by better profitability from the gold and coal
divisions. Earnings for fiscal 2001 were $0.69 compared to $0.77 in 2000
and fourth quarter 2001 earnings were $0.03 versus $0.39 in the
comparable period. The results declined on a year over year basis due to
lower realized metal prices and the lack of significant power sales to
the United States. Despite the difficult year, Teck Cominco's balance
sheet remains one of the strongest in the industry, with a net debt to
net debt plus equity ratio of 25%. We believe that Teck Cominco remains
undervalued and will continue to perform well as the fundamentals for
zinc and other base metals recover along with the global economy.
July 26, 2002
Teck Cominco has fluctuated along with the
tumultuous capital markets in recent weeks, despite the Company's solid
fundamentals. However, we are optimistic that an economic recovery is
still in the cards, which should support base metal prices and producers
alike. Unfortunately, zinc prices will remain depressed until the
inevitable global recovery becomes more readily apparent.
On July 23, 2002 Teck Cominco reported second
quarter results for 2002. Year over year comparisons are difficult
because the previous year's quarterly results benefited from power sales
at exceptional price levels. On the conference call, management
suggested that comparisons with first quarter 2002 results would provide
a more meaningful indication of the Company's operating and financial
performance.
Net earnings were $8 million ($0.04 per share) up
from $2 million ($0.01 per share) in the first quarter and $23 million
($0.22 per share) in the second quarter of 2001. Reduced power sales and
lower zinc prices were offset by strong results from the coal division,
which experienced both volume and price increases. Cash flow from
operations (before changes in non-cash working capital) was $46 million
in the second quarter of 2002 compared with $39 million in the first
quarter of 2002. The company also repaid a US$125 million debenture in
the quarter, which reduced net debt to $861 million, or 26% of net debt
plus equity. Essentially, Teck Cominco continues to successfully
navigate the trough of the base metals cycle and is well positioned for
any upturn.
January 31, 2003
Teck Cominco has just reported financial and
operating results for the fourth quarter and the 2002 fiscal year.
Fourth quarter 2002 earnings were $15 million or $0.08 per share,
compared to $6 million or $0.15 per share in the comparable period. For
the full year, Teck earned $30 million or $0.15 per share, compared to a
loss of $21 million or $0.17 per share in 2001. Earnings were quite
clean in fiscal 2002, while earnings in 2001 were positively impacted by
exceptional power sales but negatively impacted by a large asset
writedown. As at December 31, 2002, net debt had been reduced by $126
million to $868 million or 26% of net debt plus equity. Improving
operating results at Trail, Highland Valley, Hemlo and Antamina seem to
indicate that the Company is past the trough in the base metals cycle.
In other news, Teck Cominco has entered into an
important strategic relationship with Fording Coal, Westshore Terminals
Income Fund and the Sherritt Coal Partnership II (owned by Sherritt
International and the Ontario Teachers' Pension Plan). The
aforementioned company's various operations will be combined to create a
Fording Income Trust and a Coal Partnership. Teck Cominco will
contribute its Elkview Coal Mine and $275 million in cash in exchange
for Income Trust and Coal Partnership units for a total economic
interest of approximately 40%. Teck will also manage the Coal
Partnership on behalf of the others.
The consolidation of these Canadian coal assets
will create the scale needed to produce, market and distribute coal
effectively in the international marketplace. In fact, the new entity
will be the second largest metallurgical coal producer in the world. The
transaction, although complex, makes strategic sense for all parties
involved. We believe that the estimated synergies of almost $75 million,
premised on the ability to optimize production, enhance marketing
efforts, minimize operating costs, reduce capital costs and improve
transportation and logistics, are realistic and will eventually be
achieved.
August 1, 2003
On July 23, Teck Cominco reported mixed results for
the second quarter of fiscal 2003. Net earnings were $12 million or $0.06
per share compared to $8 million or $0.04 per share in the comparable
period last year. Excluding a $5 million tax benefit related to changes in
Canadian tax legislation, earnings were closer to $0.04 per share. Cash
from operations, before changes in working capital, increased to $51
million from $46 million a year ago due to investment gains and lower cash
taxes. The cash flow was used to reduce debt by $155 million and net debt
now stands at 28% of net debt plus equity.
In spite of these mediocre results, Teck Cominco's
share price has strengthened significantly since the beginning of July.
Positive economic data from the United States, including a 2.1% increase
in durable goods orders and lower than expected initial jobless claims
have supported the notation of a second half economic recovery. On the
Company's conference call, management suggested that the combination of
strong Chinese demand, stemming from the production of galvanized steel,
and supply curtailments have been working to balance the zinc market.
Consequently, the price of zinc has recovered from a low of $0.34 per
pound to almost $0.40 per pound, a 52-week high. Finally, we believe that
Teck Cominco has benefited from a sector rotation into deeper cyclical
stocks, which could continue as long as the economic data remains firm.
October 24, 2003
In its latest earnings release, Teck Cominco echoed
the refrain of the metals and mining sector in Canada: stronger metal
prices offset by a weaker U.S. dollar. In the third quarter of 2003, Teck
Cominco earned $19 million or $0.10 per share, compared to $5 million or
$0.02 per share last year. All of the Company's divisions, including Red
Dog and Trail, contributed to the operating profit in the quarter, which
totaled $70 million. Cash flow from operations before changes to non-cash
working capital items was $85 million, well above capital expenditures of
$57 million, compared to cash flow of $46 million in 2002.
Examining realized prices in U.S. and Canadian
dollars illustrates the challenges facing Canadian base metal producers.
In the third quarter, zinc prices averaged $0.37 per pound in U.S. dollar
terms, an increase of 9% from the $0.34 per pound a year ago. However, in
Canadian dollar terms, the price of zinc actually declined in the quarter
by 4%, to $0.51 per pound from $0.53 per pound. Similarly, the price of
copper increased 24% to $0.83 per pound from $0.67 per pound in U.S.
dollars but only 10% in Canadian dollars. Simply put, the Company's U.S.
dollar denominated revenue is converted back into a smaller number of
Canadian dollars on the Company's financial statements.
Currency issues aside, commodity prices are trading
at or near multi-year highs, with zinc at approximately $0.42 per pound
and copper at approximately $0.90 per pound. Although these prices are
partially anticipating a global economic recovery, enormous demand from
China has been the main driver behind the strength in the metal markets.
Should Europe and North America pick up, we could see additional gains for
both commodities and metals and mining stocks.
July 16, 2004
The base metals sector powered ahead through 2003
and early 2004 but has recently pulled back during the seasonally slow
spring/summer months. The softness can also be attributed to investors,
speculators and traders gauging the Chinese authorities’ ability to
manage a “soft-landing” for their red-hot economy. However we believe
that the sector is poised for the next leg of the rally that will be
supported by double digit industrial production growth in China, above
trend earnings growth and merger and acquisitions activity.
With coal, zinc, copper and gold exposure, Teck
Cominco has benefited from the rising commodity prices. In 2003, cash
operating profit increased 37% to $523 million from $382 million and
cash flow from operations increased 68% to $338 from $201 million on a
year over year basis. On a segmented basis, cash operating profit
increased 100% to $108 million for the zinc division, 80% to $148
million for the copper division and 36% to $49 million for the gold
division. Net earnings before unusual items reached $108 million or
$0.57 per share compared to $30 million or $0.15 per share a year ago.
We are looking for impressive earnings growth
throughout 2004. In the first quarter of the year, Teck Cominco earned
$0.51 per share compared to $0.03 per share in 2003. The year over year
improvement may not be this impressive for the balance of the year but
we think the full year will certainly be better than last. Based on
history, look for the seasonal strength in the sector starting late
summer as investors return to the sector.
December 24, 2004
Shares of Teck Cominco have been on a
tear since the mid-May correction back to the $20 level. The stock price
has been driven higher by three distinct factors. First, copper has
shown a dramatic price improvement, with spot prices moving from $1.07
to $1.45 per pound, an increase of 36% year to date. The copper price
has strengthened as inventories held in London Metal Exchange warehouses
dropped from 430,525 tonnes to just 52,650 tonnes, a precipitous decline
of 88%. Second, China continues to be a net importer of zinc due to
tremendous industrial production. Recent trade figures indicate that
China imported 17,700 net tonnes of zinc in November and 166,000 tonnes
of zinc during 2004. In response, the spot zinc price has moved from
$0.46 to $0.55 per pound today, an increase of 20% percent. Finally,
coal prices and coal contracts have spiked this year as steel
production, which uses metallurgical coal, hit record levels. It was
recently speculated that Teck Cominco had entered into coal contracts at
a price of US$125 per tonne, more than double the price received in
2004. Although it is difficult to forecast notoriously volatile
commodity prices, but we believe that demand for base metals and coal
should remain robust.
We would like to briefly mention three
other corporate developments. First, Teck has sold its 83% interest in the
Cajamarquilla zinc refinery to Votorantim Metais Limitada. Teck received
cash proceeds of approximately US$136 million after repaying US$47 million
of related debt. Because treatment and refining charges are expected to
remain relatively low, we like the fact that Teck monetized this asset.
Second, the Elk Valley Coal Partnership (Teck is the managing partner and
owner of a 41% economic interest) entered into a ten-year agreement with
Nippon Steel and POSCO. They will receive a total of 4.85 million tonnes
of coal per year for 2005 and 2006. In 2007, sales will increase to 6.25
million tonnes for the balance of the contract. They will also each
receive a direct investment in the Elkview mine for US$25 million with
proceeds going to expand production capacity. We believe that this
demonstrates just how tight the coal market is and the lengths to which
steel producers are willing to go to ensure secure supply. Finally, on the
back of strong commodity prices and huge cash flow, Teck Cominco doubled
its semi-annual dividend from $0.10 to $0.20 per share. On an annual basis
the $0.40 dividend yields just over 1 percent.
June 17, 2005
Copper inventories have hit 30-year
lows and prices have hit 16-year highs of US$1.62 per pound. The zinc
market is also tightening up, with treatment charges dropping as
smelters scramble for concentrate. In consequence, the zinc price has
remained firm around US$0.59 per pound. Therefore it is no surprise that
shares of Teck Cominco have rebounded sharply since mid-May. In the
first quarter of 2005, Teck’s cash balance grew $240 million to $1.15
billion. The Company now has $524 million of net cash after deducting
all debt. In fact, Teck recently doubled its annual dividend to $0.80
per share.
With the net cash position forecasted to
grow to $1 billion by yearend, it now becomes a question of what to do with
the money. Interestingly, Teck Cominco has just filed a shelf prospectus for
up to US$1 billion of debt securities or Class B subordinate voting shares. We
recently attended a presentation by the Company where they expressed interest
in leveraging their open-pit mining expertise and diversifying their asset
base. These comments have opened up the possibility of purchasing an interest
in an oil sands project, such as the Fort Hills venture in Alberta owned
jointly by UTS Energy and Petro-Canada. Other possible uses of the huge war
chest include a copper or zinc acquisition, a debt refinancing or even a
special one-time payout to shareholders. In any event, we will update our
readers once the decision has been made public.
November 4, 2005
Teck Comino has continued to report record
financial results on the back of higher copper, zinc and coal prices. In the
third quarter of 2005, Teck Cominco earned $405 million or $2.00 per share
compared to $120 million or $0.62 per share in the third quarter of 2004.
Excluding a gain on sale of assets and favourable tax adjustments, earnings
were $1.70 per share, implying 174% quarter over quarter growth. Cash flow
from operations grew to $476 million in the quarter from $329 million last
year, an increase of 45%.
An ebullient commodity price environment
has allowed the Company to build an enviable balance sheet. In addition to
cash from operations, a debt issue of US$700 million of thirty-year notes at
6.125% and US$300 million of ten-year notes at 5.375% has bulked up the
Company’s war chest. Currently, Teck has $2.5 billion of cash on hand with a
net cash position of $800 million or approximately $4 per share. Carrying a
debt to capital ratio of only 28%, the question had become one of “what to do
with the money”.
As we surmised in our previous update, Teck
Cominco has parlayed its open-pit mining expertise into an investment in the
Fort Hills Oil Sands project. Teck will earn a 15% interest in the project by
funding 34% ($850 million) of project expenditures until project spending
reaches $2.5 billion and 15% of any additional capital costs thereafter.
Closing of the transaction is expected in the fourth quarter and will further
diversify the Company’s asset base.
We maintain our positive outlook on the
stock for several key reasons. First, the fourth quarter is traditionally a
strong one for the Company due to seasonally peak zinc shipments from the Red
Dog mine. Second, we are generally positive on both zinc and copper pricing
into early 2006 due to low inventories, decent US GDP growth and firm demand
out of Asia. Finally, we believe that, even factoring in the investment in
Fort Hills, Teck’s cash flow would be sufficient to allow a small, but not
insignificant, special dividend in the first half of 2006.
March 3, 2006
The bull market in base metals and related
metal and mining stocks has been prolonged and powerful over the past few
years. Under investment in new projects, combined with insatiable demand out
of China and India have driven inventories to record lows and prices to record
highs. One of our favourite stocks, and one of our largest holdings, has been
Teck Cominco because of its top notch management, diversified asset base and
high quality properties. However, as disciplined stock pickers, there is a
time and price to sell even this exceptional Company.
We have been diligently running numbers
trying to determine the fair value for Teck Cominco. We believe that Teck
Cominco is currently trading at approximately 13 times trailing earnings and
10 times forward earnings, which are historically peak multiples for the
stock. However, commodity price forecasts are almost always guaranteed to be
incorrect. As value investors, trying to determine whether there is 10% or 15%
upside left in a stock is simply not our game, especially after seeing our
investment increase over 8 fold. Because we are seeing opportunities with 40%
to 50% upside, we believe that it is time to sell our entire position and
redeploy the capital into other investments.
|