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September 8, 2000
Stelco Inc. continues to offer excellent value for patient investors.
At recent price levels, Stelco trades well below book value, at less
than 7 times forecasted earnings and pays a dividend that yields
approximately 1.5%. We believe that investors are currently discounting
both an economic recession and a cyclical low for steel prices. However,
now that a "soft-landing" scenario is more likely, a recovery
in the steel sector, and especially Stelco's share price, is long
overdue.
The benefits of Stelco's modernization program and various capacity
upgrades are clearly translating into operational and financial gains.
Annualized production for the second quarter reached 5.7 million tons
and generated revenue of $804 million for the period. On a per share
basis, Stelco earned $0.28 for the quarter. This figure included $0.04
per share of a non-cash accounting charge related to employee benefits,
as mentioned in our original analysis. If the effects of this unusual
charge were removed, earnings per share would have been $0.32, a 23%
increase from the $0.26 earned in the second quarter of last year.
Two other important issues should be noted. Firstly, Stelco has
purchased 1.3 million shares in the most recent quarter as part of a
normal course issuer bid for up to 5% of the common shares outstanding.
Year to date, the Company has purchased approximately 2.5 million shares
for a total cost of $20.3 million. These shares were purchased
approximately $2 below book value and, as a result, the share buyback is
anti-dilutive. We believe, moreover, that this share buyback is a sign
of management's confidence in the business and is a proactive way of
boosting per share measures of financial performance. Secondly, labour
issues at Stelco-McMaster and Lake Erie Steel were resolved after
members of the corresponding unions accepted Stelco's contract offer.
These labour agreements are important because they will allow the
Company to concentrate its efforts on efficiently running its operations
without the threat of production halts.
To its credit, Stelco has been able to weather difficult market
conditions over the past several years, most notably during the Asian
crisis. More importantly, Stelco remained profitable throughout this
period and, in fact, improved its balance sheet. In North America today,
even with a cooling economy, demand for high-grade steel is expected to
remain firm. We believe that Stelco will continue to be one of the most
productive and profitable steel companies given the current market
environment.
December 1, 2000
After twenty-five consecutive quarters of
profitability, Stelco reported a loss of $0.07 in the third quarter of
fiscal 2000. The North American steel industry was particularly weak
throughout the period with under-priced imports accounting for over 45% of
the domestic steel market. Stelco's financial results were also adversely
affected by commissioning difficulties at Hilton Works, production halts
for scheduled maintenance and escalating natural gas costs.
In response to the bleak market conditions, Stelco
and other steel manufacturers initiated trade actions to stem the flood of
foreign steel products. Encouragingly, imports may be slowing naturally,
as fewer shipments reached the United States in each of the past two
months. Further, Canadian steel service centre inventories fell to 4.1
months of supply in October from 4.4 months in September. Despite these
relatively positive developments, we have adjusted our financial estimates
to reflect a more gradual steel price recovery. However, we continue to
believe that Stelco offers tremendous value for patient investors and we
anticipate a rally once the outlook for the sector improves.
April 20, 2001
The trends that had a detrimental impact on Stelco's
third quarter results continued throughout the final quarter of fiscal
2000. A $0.46 loss reported in the fourth quarter reduced earnings for the
year to $0.04 per share compared to $0.97 in 1999. The weak results were
blamed on record levels of imported steel, declining manufacturing
activity and rising natural gas costs. Though times have been extremely
tough for the steel industry in general, Stelco's management has taken
steps to stabilize the situation. Trade actions have been initiated in
co-operation with other steel manufacturers, dividends have been
temporarily suspended and capital spending has been curtailed. Stelco also
resolved labour issues at Stelpipe as the employees ratified a 3 ½-year
labour agreement.
Going forward, Stelco has a $250 million line of
credit available to fund operations until profitability is restored. The
first quarter is expected to be the trough in the earnings cycle and we
are seeing some positive signs; imports are declining, inventories are
shrinking and activity in manufacturing sectors is no longer dramatically
slowing. The market usually anticipates an improving economic outlook and,
reassuringly, we have seen some recent price support for Stelco's shares.
August 17, 2001
Stelco has reported financial and operating results
for the second quarter and the first half of 2001. While the recovery in
the steel sector may be more gradual than previously anticipated, some
early but encouraging signs could be inferred from the financial
statements.
Although the Company reported a loss of $0.39 per
share in the second quarter compared to earnings of $0.28 in the similar
period last year, the results were better than the $0.59 loss recorded in
the first quarter of 2001. Lower volumes and depressed steel prices have
been to blame for the weak results over the first half of the year, though
the sequential earnings improvement was good to see. While waiting for the
market conditions to improve, Stelco's management has concentrated on cost
reduction and cash management. Their efforts were rewarded as cost per ton
declined $26 from the first quarter of the current fiscal year, as
production volumes grew, production efficiencies were realized and natural
gas prices declined. The net result was an increase in EBITDA of $35
million and an increase in net cash of $28 million over the course of the
quarter.
We are optimistic that Stelco has weathered the
worst of the steel industry's cyclical downturn. However, until Asian and
European economies show greater strength, trade actions will continue to
be necessary in order to protect the domestic steel producers. Antidumping
duties have already been instituted against several Asian and Eastern
European countries and other actions are pending. South of the border, the
United States' International Trade Commission is currently investigating
the extent of injury to the domestic steel industry under Section 201 of
the Trade Act. The administration has indicated that Canada should be
excluded from any trade restrictions and the Government of Canada is
working to ensure that access to the U.S. markets is not compromised.
However, the Canadian International Trade Tribunal will have to remain
vigilant to ensure that foreign steel destined for the United States is
not redirected into Canada.
November 9, 2001
Stelco has been one of our Value Favourites for some
time now. Despite an incredibly difficult operating environment,
management has proven its ability to control costs, improve the efficiency
and quality of production and preserve cash. Unfortunately, every time
steel demand showed early indications of improvement and price increases
seemed imminent, foreign steel was dumped into the North American market.
In response, the United States International Trade Commission found that
foreign steel was damaging U.S. producers and is currently examining
various remedies and/or penalties. However, the Canadian government and
related trade bodies have shown little interest in ensuring that foreign
steel is not simply diverted to our shores. Further, we believe that the
economy is in the midst of a recession, which will delay any recovery in
demand from the manufacturing sector.
Although we are disappointed with the outcome, our
discipline as professional money managers compels us to take tax-losses
when required. Therefore, we have recently sold our entire position of
Stelco common shares. We will continue to monitor Stelco and at some point
we might consider repurchasing the security.
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