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June 29, 2001
Since our original write-up of Lone Star on May 18
the company has become a bit of a news item. Firstly, it has been
announced that a dissident shareholder, Guy Adams, whom by the way only
owns 1,100 shares is attempting to get voted onto the Board and oust
Jamie Coulter. The current Board of directors and management team owns
26% of the company. We view this action as negative in the short term
but potentially positive in the longer term. Lone Star remains
fundamentally cheap and this activity may prompt management to review
its options in order to create additional shareholder value. In our
view, we see this as a catalyst for a possible takeover, an aggressive
share buyback program or privatization. More importantly we feel that
this publicity will bring deserved attention to the stock and may
attract more interest.
The second piece of data that has put some
pressure on Lone Star's share price is its removal from the S&P
Midcap 400 Index and its placement in the S&P Smallcap 600 Index. In
essence, Lone Star has demoted itself to this level through its assertive
share buyback program. With Lone Star trading at a significant discount
to its book value, we view its anti-dilutive share repurchase program as
very positive.
While we believe that in the long run these events
will create a catalytic spin for Lone Star, we will have to ride out the
short- term effects on its share price. We have taken advantage of this
downward pressure in order to add to our position.
October 19, 2001
The fear of economic and stock market uncertainty
continues to plague investors. But in light of the recessionary
environment Lone Star reported solid third quarter results with 4.2%
revenue growth and an increase in adjusted net income to $0.20 versus
$0.11 in the comparable quarter. While a softer fourth quarter is
looming we feel that the company’s fundamental strength will help to
endure a slowdown in the economy.
Moreover, Lone Star continues to be an extremely
compelling value play. Lone Star still trades significantly below its
tangible book value of almost $17 and at a dividend yield of 4%. It has
a healthy balance sheet with no debt, bolstered by $2.39 per share of
cash. Of particular interest is the fact that Lone Star has retained UBS
Warburg to explore strategic alternatives for the company. The company
has an aggressive share buyback program in place; we feel that
privatization is a possibility. Also, its low valuations earmark the
company as a viable takeover candidate. In the meantime, as patient
investors we will anxiously await a catalytic event that will result in
significant share price appreciation.
November 23, 2001
Over the last few months Lone Star's shareholders
have become very aggressive in pushing management towards creating
shareholder value. As a result several new corporate governance
initiatives have been implemented:
- -The Board has decided to increase the number of
directors on the Board to eight from five. This has led to the
addition of three new qualified and accomplished members: Tommy
LaSorda, Michael Ledeen, and Mark Saltzgaber.
- It has been decided to terminate Lone Star's
poison pill by redeeming its stock purchase rights. Consequently,
shareholders will receive a one-time payment of $0.01 per common
share, which will be paid on December 10.
- It is going to be put forth at the next annual
meeting to remove the staggered terms of directors. The proposal
suggests that directors should be reelected annually commencing in
2003.
We view these proposed changes as positive for Lone
Star. The company continues to review all aspects of the company in order
to realize value for its shareholders. We feel that in time Lone Star's
efforts will increase its share price.
February 1, 2002
At $18.00 we have seen Lonestar's share price
appreciate significantly since we originally earmarked it as a value
favourite. This has, in part, been fuelled by stronger consumer confidence
levels and better than expected earnings.
Earnings per share for the fourth quarter 2001, before
unusual items were $0.14 compared to $0.03 in 2000. The company was able to
boost its fourth quarter results through the improvement of operating
controls, higher average unit sales and lower beef prices. For the year the
company reported earnings per share of $0.55 versus $0.62 in 2000. We are
pleased with these results as they come in spite of a tough economic period.
Although Lonestar's stock price has significantly
appreciated over the last few months, we feel that there is more value yet
to be realized. Its fundamentals remain firm with a book value of $18.90, no
debt on the balance sheet and $3.45 per share in cash. Also, on January 9,
Lonestar announced a 20% increase in its quarterly cash dividend from $0.125
to $0.15 per share. Additionally, Lonestar continues to buy back stock under
its share repurchase plan. It is also important to keep in mind that
Lonestar has been exploring strategic alternatives for the company. This
could result in an opportunistic acquisition or takeover bid. In the
meantime, we continue to monitor the stock carefully as its fundamentals
strengthen its share price.
April 12, 2002
On April 2, Lone Star announced that it received a
buyout offer from Bruckmann, Rosser, Sherrill & Co., a New York investment
firm. A non-binding letter of intent was signed by Lone Star, which expires on
April 27. It is expected that the transaction will close in the third quarter.
Bruckmann, Rosser, Sherrill has investments in other restaurant ventures such
as California Pizza Kitchen and McCormick and Schmick Restaurant Corp.
The offer of $20.50 for Lone Star's common stock, is
essentially what we would define as a "take-under", as it was below
the previous days closing price of $20.66 and only one times its book value.
We feel that Lone Star warrants a higher price and since it is a non-binding
letter of agreement, we believe that there remains a possibility that another
offer could be put forth.
July 5, 2002
We have sold all of our Lone Star Steakhouse &
Saloon Inc. shares through Lone Star's 4 million share modified Dutch auction
tender / buyback at $21 3/8 net. While we believe that the share price
can go higher, we tendered our holdings as the stock price had reached our
primary price target.
We netted a 71% capital gain over a ten month period and
collected several income dividends. The proceeds of this disposition
will provide us with the necessary cash to purchase new undervalued securities
which we are now uncovering during the present market weakness.
>>>=== REPURCHASED ===<<<
September 26, 2002
We have recently repurchased our holding of Lone Star
Steakhouse which we previously liquidated at $21.40 during the company's 4
million share Dutch auction buyback in June. Since that time, Lone Star
has fallen to $18 - 18 1/2 which, we believe, represents excellent long term
value.
As of its September 19, 2002 reporting date for its
third quarter ending September 3, 2002, Lone Star earned a fully-diluted 32¢
vs. 20¢ per share for the same period
last year. The company remains debt-free, with good free cash flow, is
on track to earn $1.60 / $1.70 for 2002, pays a 60¢ dividend which provides
for a 3.3% yield and trades below an estimated third quarter book value of
approximately $19.14. On a comparative basis, Lone Star continues to
trade at a significant discount to its casual-dining competitors with regard
to PE multiples, book value, etc.

October 4, 2002
As we briefly discussed last week, we have repurchased an
old familiar Value Favourite, Lone Star Steakhouse. Although we had tendered our
stock in Lone Star through the modified Dutch auction, we still believed in the
Company's fundamentals. In the months since the tender offer, Lone Star fell
below $19 and we took advantage of the market turbulence to rebuild a position
in the stock. We would like to elaborate on our rationale and provide some more
details on the story.
One of the most important attributes of a value investor
is discipline. Discipline to buy cheap stocks and discipline to sell them when
they become fairly valued or even overvalued. Our investment discipline forced
us to liquidate our position in Lone Star once the stock reached our primary
target. We simply felt that it was time to "ring the till" based on
Lone Star's valuation after a period of solid share price performance.
In the market turmoil of recent months, Lone Star's share
price pulled back below $19. Because we had been patiently waiting for
attractive investment opportunities, we again purchased the stock. At these
levels, Lone Star was trading below book value, was debt free, was generating
free cash flow, was buying back shares and was yielding just over 3%. Given the
trend of improving quarterly financial results and the emphasis on building
shareholder value, we believe that Lone Star could easily return to levels
reached in late June/early July of 2002.
The Lone Star story should be a familiar one. Basically,
the Company owns and operates a chain of Texas-style casual dining restaurants
as well as two more-upscale chains. But the real story is much more intriguing.
Lone Star Steakhouse, after a tremendous run in the mid 1990's, traded at a
discount to its peers for various reasons. However, 2001 turned out to be a very
eventful year and was a turning point for the stock's performance. A dissident
shareholder was elected to the Board of Directors and, perhaps not coincidently,
corporate governance and shareholder value became top priorities.
Lone Star's management responded well by separating the
positions of Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, increasing the number of
Board members from 5 to 8, redeeming the "poison pill" or share
purchase rights and retaining UBS Warburg to review strategic options and
alternatives to enhance shareholder value. Next, Lone Star signed a letter of
intent with Bruckmann, Rosser & Sherrill for the sale of the Company.
However, the two parties could not agree on specific terms and the letter of
intent was allowed to expire. After further review, the Company announced a
modified Dutch Auction Tender Offer for up to 4 million shares. The tender offer
was over subscribed, so the Company purchased approximately 85.5% of the shares
tendered at $21.375. Shareholders were then free to hold or sell their remaining
14.5% in the open market.
We tendered our stock and sold the balance in the market
because we felt the price was fair. But the subsequent share price decline and
several new developments caused us to look at the stock again. On September 10,
2002, Lone Star released preliminary operating results for its third quarter.
The Company stated that earnings would be in the range of $0.30 to $0.32 per
share on a diluted basis. Importantly, the Company raised guidance for full year
fiscal 2002 sales of $605 to $615 million and earnings per share of $1.63 to
$1.70, after adjusting for unusual items.
When the third quarter results were released on September
19, 2002, adjusted net income came in at $0.32 per fully diluted share, at the
upper end of the forecasted range, compared to $0.20 reported the previous year.
With the combination of an active share buyback program, the Dutch auction and
earnings growth, book value has grown to $19.15 per share.
On the third quarter conference call, management discussed
the Company's strategic outlook. After opening 11 Lone Star restaurants in 2001,
there were no plans for expansion in 2002. However, management suggested that
between 8 and 12 Lone Star restaurants and 2 to 4 new high-end restaurants would
be opened in 2003. Most of the locations will be leased and the capital
expenditure is expected to total approximately $25 million. This expansion can
be easily financed using internally generated cash flow and the Company's strong
balance sheet.
We believe that management has shown good progress in
terms of improving corporate governance and building shareholder value. Lone
Star's discount to its peers should contract as the Company opens new locations
and demonstrates revenue and earnings growth. Our discipline will again force us
to act decisively should Lone Star approach fair value under our updated set of
assumptions and projections.

February 14, 2003
On February 5th 2003 Lone Star Steakhouse and Saloon
reported financial results for the fourth quarter and year ending 2002. Income
from continuing operations before restaurant-closing costs increased 3.1% to
$12.5 million or $0.59 per share for the fourth quarter and 49.2% to $42.3
million or $1.91 per share for the year. Revenue from continuing operations
increased 8% to $195 million for the fourth quarter and increased 3.9% to $616
million for the year.
During the fourth quarter, management repurchased 1.1
million shares bringing the total to 5.1 million shares for the full year. Since
1997, Lone Star management has reduced the total outstanding number of Lone Star
shares from 41 million to 21 million. The measurable benefit to shareholders of
buying back stock cannot be ignored, as the earning power of each share has
nearly doubled in five years as a result.
Lone Star has also announced that it will increase the
size of its quarterly dividend by 10% from $0.15 per share to $0.165 per share.
On an annualized basis, the dividend will increase from $0.60 per share to $0.66
per share. This is the second consecutive year that Lone Star has increased its
dividend reflecting the company's strong balance sheet and cash flow as well as
management's commitment to creating shareholder value.
On the company's conference call, management gave earnings
per share guidance in the range of $1.80 to $1.90 per basic share for 2003.
While slightly below 2002 levels, management explained that the lower guidance
is due to the fact that fiscal 2002 enjoyed a 53rd week of operations including
two New Year's Eve sales days in 2002. As a result, 2003 will not have a New
Year's Eve sales day. Management estimated that the extra week during the
holidays in fiscal 2002 added $12.9 million to revenues and $2 million or $0.09
per share to net income for the fourth quarter.
The company plans to open 6-8 more restaurants in 2003 and
well as continue its program of remodeling its existing restaurants. The
remodeling is to consist of "contemporarizing" the steakhouses by
improving the lighting, staff uniforms, and music and by eliminating
line-dancing night. Restaurants that have been remodeled have so far
experienced an 8%-10% improvement in sales.
Lone Star continues to trade at a discount to its book
value of $20 per share, a ten times multiple to expected 2003 earnings and a
yield of 3.5%. On a comparative basis, Lone Star trades at a discount to its
casual dining peers on a P/E and book value basis. Any dissipation in homeland
security fears or signs of economic improvement should compel U.S. consumers to
return to dining out more frequently. When this does occur, we believe Lone Star
will benefit accordingly.

May 23, 2003
On April 11th Lone Star Steakhouse and Saloon reported
operating results for the first quarter of 2003. Net income from continuing
operations was $8.7 million or $0.41 per share down from $12.2 million or $0.53
per share in the first quarter last year. Revenue from continuing operations
declined 2.3% to $144.5 million in the quarter from $147.8 million last year. It
is important to note that last year's first quarter included New Year's eve
sales and profits that were not included in this quarter's numbers.
Additionally, sales during the first quarter were impacted by severe snowstorms,
the war with Iraq, and a challenging U.S. economy.
On May 20th, Canada's Federal Agricultural Minister
announced that the remains of a cow slaughtered in late January tested positive
for bovine spongiform encephalopathy, better known as BSE or mad-cow disease.
Although meat from the cow did not enter the food chain, news of the finding
sent restaurant stocks with beef-dominant menus sharply lower. Many investors
feared that Americans would boycott hamburger chains and steakhouses in much the
same way the British and Japanese did in 2000 and 2001 after similar outbreaks
occurred.
We believe that business at Lone Star's restaurants will
not be significantly impacted by this isolated case of BSE in Canada. First of
all, Lone Star does not operate any steakhouses in Canada, nor does it import
any beef from Canada. Second, interest in the story by the U.S. media seems to
be dissipating. The perceived risk of contracting mad cow disease usually has a
greater impact on business than the actual risk of contracting it. Currently,
the perceived risk of the disease will depend to a large degree upon how much
play it continues to receive in the American press. While the story still
dominates the newspaper headlines in Canada at this time, it is receiving far
less attention south of the border. With mad cow disease out of the headlines in
the U.S for the moment, we believe that business will remain as usual at Lone
Star's steakhouses and saloons.

July 25, 2003
Sales were higher at Lone Star restaurants in the second
quarter of 2003 compared to the same period last year. This reverses the sales
trend reported in the first quarter, which was negatively impacted by the Iraq
war, unfavourable weather and concerns about the U.S. economy. Net income for
the quarter rose 26% to $7.1 million or $.37 per share compared with $6.1
million or $.24 for the second quarter of last year. It should be noted that
this year's quarter benefited from a favourable tax rate and the exclusion of a
one-time merger cost which lowered earnings in last year's quarter. Adjusting
for these one-time exceptions, Lone Star's earnings would have been lower on a
year over year basis.
Perhaps the most significant impact on this quarter's
earnings was food costs, which increased to 34.9% of sales from 32.9% a year
ago. As we reported in May, a single cow in Alberta was found to have bovine
spongiform encephalopathy, or mad cow disease. This event became the basis for a
U.S. import ban on all Canadian beef and while Lone Star does not purchase any
of its beef from Canada, this supply disruption has caused the price of U.S.
beef to soar. In the last three weeks of June, food costs were running at 37% of
sales at Lone Star.
Earnings for the second half of 2003 at Lone Star will
likely be less than earnings in the second half of last year. Fourth quarter
results this year will not include sales from New Year's Eve due to the timing
of Lone Star's fiscal year end. Also, beef costs will likely remain at current
levels due to the import ban on Canadian beef. With that, we now expect Lone
Star's full year earnings to be less than management's previously stated
guidance of between $1.80 and $1.90 per share.
Despite a cautious outlook for the remainder of
2003, we continue to believe that Lone Star represents an attractive investment
opportunity for those willing to look ahead to 2004 or even 2005. Lone Star's
book value is now over $20 a share and the company remains completely debt free.
The question that begs to be asked is whether Lone Star is a candidate for a
management-led leveraged buyout. In the meantime Lone Star's annual dividend of
$.66 per share (which was raised from $.60/share in February) represents a yield
of over 3% and the company continues to repurchase its shares on an ongoing
basis. Lone Star is well positioned to benefit from a better economy and lower
beef prices once the import ban on Canadian beef is lifted. In addition, Lone
Star management is expected to launch a full scale remodeling program after it
completes some initial tests next quarter. We believe that these factors will
result in higher sales and earnings for Lone Star and eventually a higher
valuation of its shares.

September 5, 2003
For the second time in just over a year, we have
liquidated our position in Lone Star Steakhouse and Saloon. Our primary motive
for the sale was valuation, as Lone Star shares had increased nearly 10% since
our last update. On August 21st Lone Star significantly lowered its earnings
guidance for the year due to the continuing high cost of beef, which represents
over 60% of its costs. While admittedly this is only a short term negative until
the mad-cow concerns dissipate, the Company now expects to earn between $0.12
and $0.15 for the third quarter and between $0.92 and $1.08 per share for the
full year. On that note, Lone Star shares now trade at over twenty times this
year's earnings, and at a 22% premium to its tangible book value of $18.43. In
the event that the shares decline and reflect the poor near term profit outlook,
we will review the stock for possible repurchase.

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