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May 20, 2005
On May 11th, Royal Host held its Annual General
Meeting (AGM) for investors and analysts. Annual meetings are usually
platitudinous events; senior executives, after reviewing the prior
year’s happenings, give a vague, optimistic forecast for the current
calendar year. Subsequent to this overview is the election of the Board.
The list of nominees presented on the Corporation’s proxy is usually
elected without discussion. Indeed, in today’s world of email, real-time
news, and increased corporate disclosure, AGMs are increasingly becoming
mere formalities.
Royal Host’s AGM proceeded along this agenda as
planned – until the election of the Board was tabled. In a dramatic turn
of events, three long-serving Royal Host Board members were unexpectedly
replaced with three representatives of George Armoyan’s Geosam
Investments. Before the meeting, George Armoyan was Geosam’s sole
representative on Royal Host’s Board of Directors. With three new
representatives, Geosam now effectively controls half of Royal Host’s
Board, giving it significant influence with respect to the future
direction of the Trust. During Royal Host’s first quarter conference
call on May 12th, Greg Royer, President & CEO, welcomed the new
Directors enthusiastically, saying their presence gives the Trust a more
“focused” direction.
We purchased Royal Host units because we feel that
the current unit price does not reflect the fundamental value of the
Trust’s nation-wide Travelodge franchise, premier resorts & hotels, and
expanding hotel management business. As outlined in our first Royal Host
commentary, we feel Royal Host’s true net asset value (NAV) is
approximately $6.50. Furthermore, Geosam’s 19.8% interest was a clear
sign that a catalyst had arrived and that the Trust’s underlying value
would be unlocked sooner rather than later. With these latest
developments, we expect Royal Host’s repositioning will only be
accelerated.
August 19, 2005
On August 15th, Royal Host announced its operating
performance for the first six months of the 2005 fiscal year. The
Trust’s core businesses performed well amidst a rebounding hospitality
industry. During the second quarter, revenue per available room (RevPAR)
improved by $2.30 to $65.12, with the year-to-date figure coming in at
$58.51. The REIT continues to focus on bottom line improvements; gross
margin improved by 14% when compared to the same period in 2004. With
these improved results, and a positive outlook, Royal Host increased its
monthly distribution by 17% to $0.035 from $0.03 per unit. We would not
be surprised to see another distribution increase in the first quarter
of 2006.
Royal Host’s franchise operations and hotel
management business, classified as “other hospitality revenue” grew by
15% year-over-year. This line item is often overlooked as it only
accounts for approximately 10%-15% of the Trust’s revenue. However,
franchise operations and hotel management revenues flow directly to the
Trust’s bottom line. The Trust’s management contract with US-based
Supertel Hospitality is a key driver of net income. Due to the
fixed-cost nature of its management business, incremental fees generated
from its Supertel contract provide powerful leverage to Royal Host’s
bottom line.
While Royal Host’s operations exceeded
expectations, the Trust’s corporate finance decisions tell a much more
compelling story. Armed with its growing cash position (as of June 30th
the Trust had $8,000,000 on its balance sheet), Royal Host continues to
execute its two outstanding Normal Course Issuer Bids. The first Issuer
Bid, announced December 2004, allows the Trust to purchase 1,200,000
units. Between January 1st and June 30th, Royal Host purchased 100,000
units at an average cost of $5.41. During the Q2 conference call, Greg
Royer, the Trust’s CEO, stated that at this time purchasing units is the
most accretive option facing Royal Host. In other words, Mr. Royer feels
that current unit prices do not reflect the Trust’s true net asset value
(NAV), and continues to buy back stock at these levels. The second
Issuer Bid, announced in July 2005, allows the Trust to purchase
$2,000,000 of its 9.25% convertible debentures. To date, Royal Host has
not purchased any convertible debentures, citing that buying units is
more accretive.
We continue to believe that Royal Host’s true NAV
is north of $6.50. While most investors and analysts focus on Royal
Host’s Travelodge hotel operation, and value the Trust using cap rates
between 9.50% and 10.50%, it is important to note that 70% of the
Trust’s income is derived from just 14 hotel properties. These 14
properties, like the Grand Okanagan in Kelowna and the Toronto
Travelodge, are typically discounted using cap rates between 8.00% and
9.00% (based on recent private market transactions). In addition, we
believe the Trust has excess land that could be sold, used for hotel
expansion, or condo development. We believe these hidden assets will be
surfaced within the next twelve months.
April 7, 2006
For the 2005 fiscal year, Royal Host recorded
improved results in all areas of its business. Revenue of $144.3
million, the highest in the Trust’s history, represents an increase of
4% over last year. Looking at the Trust’s key hotel operating numbers,
RevPAR and ADR increased by 3.6% and 3.9%, respectively. Royal Host’s
dual focus on core operations and cost control has translated into
strong gains in income and cash flow. The 2005 gross margin of 29%, a 9%
increase over 2004, approached the historical high of 32% reached in
2002. Cash available from operations rose 43% to $0.70 per unit. As a
result of these impressive numbers, the Trust’s annual distribution has
been raised by 14% to $0.48 per unit. Assuming continued strong
performance in 2006, distributions could easily rise to $0.55 - $0.60
per unit.
Looking at 2006, the Trust could pursue
opportunities to take advantage of record hotel valuations. During the
Trust’s year-end conference call, Greg Royer, the Trust’s CEO, commented
that capitalization rates are the lowest he’s seen in quite some time –
especially for limited service hotels (e.g. Travelodge and Thriftlodge).
It is interesting that Royal Host is the only TSX listed REIT with an
implied capitalization rate north of 10%, despite the fact that Mr.
Royer sees several limited service properties selling below this number.
Indeed, Mr. Royer could look to sell these properties at record prices
to narrow the gap between the Trust’s current market value and what he
sees to be the Trust’s true intrinsic value. When these potential asset
sales are coupled with the expected windfall from the completion of the
Royal Private Residence Club, development projects, and a generally
improving hotel industry, we see many catalysts that will drive the
units to what we believe is a net asset value of approximately $7.00.
June 23, 2006
On June 19th, Royal Host’s CEO, Greg
Royer, announced his intention to resign from the Trust effective August
31st. In addition, Terry Royer announced that he will resign as Trustee
effective immediately. With these two surprising resignations, the three
founding members of Royal Host are no longer involved in day-to-day
operations.
Naturally, the sudden departure of the
two remaining Royer brothers leads to speculation regarding the future
direction of Royal Host. It is no secret that George Armoyan has been
shopping the REIT and, as a self-described activist investor, is keen on
finding a suitable exit strategy. Backed by Mr. Armoyan’s financial
expertise and access to capital markets, Greg Royer and his team have
done much to turn around the REIT since 2003. We believe that there are
three tasks remaining for Mr. Armoyan before another REIT or private
entity purchases Royal Host: the completion of the Royal Private
Residence Club, the redemption of outstanding convertible debentures,
and the sale of non-performing assets. Given that all three of these
tasks are scheduled to be completed by the end of the year, Royal Host
is well positioned as a consolidation candidate.
November 10, 2006
On November 9th, Royal Host reported results from
its first full quarter under the leadership of new President Mike
Jackson. The Trust’s core business continues to benefit from healthy
industry conditions. Year-to-date revenue, at $113.7 million, is 4%
higher than last year. Revenue per available room (RevPAR) increased
2.8% due to higher room rental rates. Adjusted funds from operations (AFFO)
for the first nine months was $25 million compared to $20 million for
the same period last year. As a result of this strong performance, the
Trust increased its annual distribution by 25% to $0.60/unit from
$0.48/unit.
During the quarter, Royal Host continued its
initiatives outlined earlier in the year to increase shareholder value.
As expected, the Trust recognized a one-time $8.7 million profit from
the completion of the Royal Private Residence Club. Royal Host continues
to refine its capital structure. The Trust purchased 542,200 units
during the third quarter at an average cost of $6.10. A total of 2.3
million units have been repurchased since the Trust’s normal course
issuer bid was announced in 2005. On the debt side, over $2 million
worth of high-interest convertible debentures have been repurchased
since 2005. As of September 30th, Royal Host had $90 million in cash and
short term investments. When these initiatives are coupled with the fact
that Royal Host is one of only a handful of Canadian REITs that trade
below their net asset value, we believe the Trust is an excellent
consolidation or privatization candidate.
February 16, 2007
Over the last year, George Armoyan has initiated
several measures that have transformed Royal Host from the ugly duckling
of Canada’s lodging sector into a nimble, cash rich hotel operator. As
we noted in our previous updates, selling non-core assets, buying units
below net asset value, and freeing up encumbered assets have done much
to unlock Royal Host’s value. As a result of these efforts, Royal Host’s
unit price has recovered from a low of $4 to over $7 today. We believe,
however, that Royal Host’s unit price now trades close to our estimate
of the portfolio’s net asset value.
As we mentioned in our Legacy Hotel REIT update
last week, amidst the excitement towards the hotel industry, we see
reasons to take a more cautious stance. It is interesting to see the
same investors who shunned the hotel industry two years ago are jumping
back in with more enthusiasm than ever. Capitalization rates have
plummeted as investors compete more and more for limited industrial,
office, and hotel assets. In many cases, cap rates fall below the cost
of capital. The bottom line is that real estate is no longer undervalued
and, as a result, is now priced for perfection. There is no margin for
error.
We have always thought that Royal Host could be a
takeout candidate for a private investor or competitor. With the heavy
lifting largely done, now is the time for a buyer to emerge. However,
with the units now close to net asset value, we see greater
opportunities elsewhere. In consequence, we have sold our units to
redeploy the proceeds in other equities.
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