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Rothmans Inc. (TSX:ROC)
ABOUT THE COMPANY

Headquartered in Toronto, Rothmans Inc. is a major Canadian manufacturer and distributor of cigarettes through its 60% ownership in Rothmans, Benson and Hedges Inc. (RBH). The remaining 40% of RBH is owned by a subsidiary of Philip Morris Companies Inc. Recently, British American Tobacco (BAT), after purchasing Imasco and Imperial Tobacco, was forced to sell its 71.2% stake in Rothmans to the general public at $13.35 per share. In 1999, total assets of $350 million were used to generate sales of $533 million and Rothmans controlled 22% of the Canadian domestic cigarette market.

FINANCIAL DATA
  1999 2000 2001e
Earnings per Share ($) 1.95 1.92 2.00
Price to Earnings (times) 9.1 9.3 8.9
Dividend ($) 1.00 1.00 1.00
Dividend Yield (%) 5.62 5.62 5.62
Book Value ($) 4.14 5.06 5.25
Price to Book Value (times) 4.30 3.52 3.39
 
PRICE GRAPH
Graph
WHY ABC FUNDS BOUGHT THIS COMPANY

In May 1999, BAT entered into an agreement with the Canadian Competition Bureau to divest its 71.2% interest in Rothmans in order to avoid anti-trust concerns. Because the shares were sold on the open market, Rothmans no longer had a controlling shareholder and therefore became a potential acquisition target. Reassuringly, current management bought a portion of the offering, strengthening their motivation to concentrate on building shareholder value. We recognized the inherent value in the company and opportunistically added Rothmans to our portfolio.

Rothmans' financial stability and long standing profitability made it an attractive purchase. The company has no long-term debt, little capital expenditure and pays an extraordinary 7.14% dividend or $1.00 per share (after a 6 for one stock split). The company generates so much free cash flow that Rothmans has made several special dividend payments, totaling almost $100.00 per share since 1987, on a pre-split basis. Further, Rothmans is trading at a fundamentally low price to earnings multiple of approximately 7.2 times 1999 earnings of $1.95 per share.

We are aware of and are sensitive to concerns regarding companies that sell tobacco products. Due to the nature of the industry, Rothmans is perceived to suffer from a greater than average risk of litigation. However, the Canadian legal system differs significantly from that in the United States and any settlements are not expected to materially affect the financial stability of the company. In any event, while the social acceptability of smoking may be declining, tobacco products are still legal and are a major source of tax revenue for the Government of Canada.

When BAT offered its stake in Rothmans to the public, ABC Funds seized the opportunity. The non-cyclical and inelastic nature of product consumption assures stable revenues and allows price increases of 3% to 4% on an annual basis. Due to Rothmans' extraordinary free cash flow, it is expected that a special dividend payment or a share buyback may occur sometime in the near future. In short, we purchased Rothmans because of its valuable free cash flows, high dividend yield, attractiveness as an acquisition target and defensive nature in times of extreme market volatility.

ABC Funds
April 2000

UPDATES
August 17, 2000

Rothmans Inc. reported its fiscal 2000 operating results for its March 31 corporate year-end. Earnings per share of $1.92 were slightly less than earnings in 1999, which could be attributed to nonrecurring costs due to a workforce reduction. More recently, Rothmans reported its first quarter 2001 results, which were also in line with expectations. Earnings per share for the quarter ended June 30 were $0.54 versus $0.52 for the comparable period in 1999. A decline in total sales was offset by price increases and investment income from Rothmans’ $74 million of cash and short-term investments.

At year-end, Rothmans’ book value had increased to just over $5.00 per share. The Company’s over-funded pension, which we consider to be a hidden asset, is now worth just over $34 million or approximately $1 per share. Rothmans’ financial position remains highly stable, with no long-term debt and little capital expenditure requirements.

Since becoming a widely held, public company, Rothmans’ management has shown real motivation and commitment to maximizing shareholder value. In fiscal year 2000, the trend of market share contraction was reversed and Rothmans’ composite (fine cut and cigarette) market share grew to 22 percent. Strategically, Rothmans’ has shifted brand priorities, implemented significant cost cutting initiatives and approved a share buyback program.

Tobacco stocks generally trade on cash flow multiples and market sentiment. In recent months we have seen improved performance from several U.S. tobacco companies, including Phillip Morris. The share price recovery is probably due to optimism that the worst has been seen with various lawsuits. North of the border, investors have begun to return to Rothmans due to its defensive nature, its 5˝% dividend yield and easing concerns with regard to litigation.


November 3, 2000

On June 28, 2000 tobacco regulations that require graphic health warning messages to cover 50% of product packaging became law. Health Canada has designed 16 different layouts that meet the criteria set out by the new guidelines. The labels contain both text and graphics and some depict the physical effects of long-term tobacco use. The regulations will require tobacco brands with more than 2% market share to be compliant by late December and brands with less than 2% market share to be compliant by June 2001. As these dates approach, we are concerned with the potential fallout on Rothmans and other tobacco companies.

We are also concerned about the British Columbia provincial government's determination to pursue legal action against the tobacco industry. Though the province's most recent suit was thrown out of court because it was based on a law determined to be unconstitutional, it is believed that the government is undeterred. In fact, provincial legislation may be reworked to allow future legal challenges to proceed.

In the meantime, Rothmans reported its Q2 results for fiscal 2001 on October 26. Earnings for the quarter were $0.54 per common share, an increase of 13% from the $0.48 earned in the comparable period the previous year. The Company also announced that the Board of Directors had increased the annual dividend from $1.00 to $1.20 per share. However, the Board did not declare a special dividend with the release of the quarterly financial results, though they acknowledged that the potential to do so still exists.

In light of a regulatory environment that is becoming more hostile toward tobacco manufacturers and the continual threat of litigation, we have completely divested our position in Rothmans. We were able to take advantage of buying interest after the good financial results to sell our relatively illiquid holding for a reasonable gain.

 

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