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October 20, 2000
In the past six months we have seen Regional Cable
step back from its acquisition strategy in order to efficiently
integrate its 21 cable purchases made over the past two years. But with
the announcement of its newest acquisitions, Regional Cable has declared
that it has returned to its "aggressive acquisition mode".
Regional Cable has entered into an agreement to
purchase Kawartha Lakes Cablevision (1,900 subscribers) in Ontario and
Riverview Cable Limited (400 subscribers) in Newfoundland. The purchase
price for these two companies is $2.5 million or approximately $1,100
per subscriber. This price is in line with the company's previous
acquisitions and its strict mandate to not overpay for assets.
Indicative of Regional's ability to hunt out inexpensive assets are two
recent transactions that have taken place in the cable industry. In
August Cogeco Cable made a purchase in Belleville, Ontario for
approximately $2,455 per subscriber and more recently Rogers acquired
Cable Atlantic for $3,100 per subscriber. These relatively expensive
acquisitions are at a significant premium compared to Regional's average
historical purchase price of approximately $1,120 per subscriber.
We are comfortable with management's decision to
continue Regional's growth by once again pursuing its acquisition
strategy in non-metropolitan markets. We continue to believe that
Regional Cable is a well-run operator and is a prime takeover candidate
by any of the larger cable companies.
December 22, 2000
Regional Cable reported fiscal 2000 year-end
results of $0.37 per share (before a one-time restructuring charge),
which was flat, compared to 1999. Impressively, the company's revenues
have increased 15% year-over-year. Also, as a result of cost cutting
initiatives Regional was able to achieve an "industry leading"
operating margin of 46.2% in the fourth quarter versus 44.4% in the same
quarter of 1999.
The year ahead will be challenging for Regional as
it battles the intense competition of direct-to-home satellites (DTH).
Although the quarter showed a slight downturn in basic cable subscribers
we are confident in Regional's focus on its Internet growth strategy. In
fact, Regional recently announced the launch of high-speed Internet in
five communities in eastern Ontario. This coincides with management's
direction towards the expansion of high-speed Internet in rural regions.
Trading at a discount relative to its cable peers,
Regional continues to be a prime takeover candidate in a consolidating
industry. In the meantime, we expect fiscal 2001 to be a year of
continued focus on growth and shareholder value creation.
April 12, 2001
Despite the fierce competition that plagues the cable industry, Regional
Cable reported earnings per share of $0.17 in the second quarter of 2001
versus $0.09 in the comparable period. While this may have been slightly
below expectations, we feel that Regional Cable has done an exemplary
job in rolling out its high-speed Internet and digital cable platform.
In the past six months Regional's Internet subscriber level has
increased from 900 to an astounding 4,300 as at the end of February
2001. Its year-old digital cable expansion has also been successful with
more that more than 8,300 subscribers to date. Although Regional's basic
subscriber level has declined, the company feels it has been offset with
the substantial increases in these two services.
We feel that the success of Regional Cable can be
in part attributed to astute management and its choice to develop and
expand the company's suburban market niche. Furthermore, in a
consolidating industry such as this, Regional is a prime takeover
candidate, trading at a discount relative to its peers.
June 29, 2001
Regional Cable has just announced that subject to
regulatory and shareholder approval it plans to reorganize its corporate
structure into a holding company. The new public holding company will
have the same shareholders and initially its only asset will be
Regional.
According to the President, Brendan Paddick the
new structure provides additional tax benefits and allows foreign
investors to invest more than 20%. More importantly, it will be
conducive to pursuing business opportunities outside of Canada. We are
optimistic that this will further enhance Regional's growth
capabilities.
August 31, 2001
Over the last month we have seen Regional Cable's
management team become very aggressive in pursuing growth opportunities.
In June, Regional announced its plan to reorganize its corporate
structure into a holding company. Most recently the company has entered
into a binding letter of agreement to acquire the communications
businesses of Amtelecom Group. Inc. Subsequently, we have seen
Regional's share price decline to $8 from a high point of $14 in January
2001. Evidently, it seems that investors may feel that Regional may have
taken on too much at once. While this sense of uncertainty may be
warranted, we believe that management has a credible track record and in
the long run these initiatives will pay off.
On August 22, 2001, Regional held a shareholder
meeting in order to vote on the potential transformation of Regional
into Persona Inc., a holding company. The vote was passed, however, we
voted against the new corporate structure. Yet our negative vote was not
a vote of non-confidence. Rather, we felt it was our obligation as
shareholders to voice our concern to Regional that they might be
over-extending themselves with both this transaction, which potentially
entails a Caribbean acquisition, as well as the Amtelecom purchase. In
fact, we believe that ventures outside of Canada, such as the Caribbean
may be a profitable wildcard. In a subsequent meeting with senior
Regional management, they have assured us that they will be prudent and
will be able to handle both transactions.
Overall, we feel that strategically, the Amtelecom
purchase is a good fit. The largest part of this $64.4 million purchase
will include Amtelecom Inc., which provides telephone service through
more than 21,400 network access lines throughout southwestern and
central Ontario. In addition, Amtelecom's AGI Cablevision, a cable
television provider to more 10,300 homes in southwestern Ontario, as
well as its Internet services business with approximately 2,600
subscribers will be included in the deal. Regional's entry into western
Ontario provides a solid base for supplementary acquisitions.
Furthermore, the newly acquired telecom business is a means of
diversification away from the higher risk cable assets, which are
subject to a highly competitive environment. While the acquisition is
still conditional on the approval of Amtelecom's shareholders, Regional
expects that synergies will be realized right away and it will be mildly
accretive to earnings.
We feel that the Amtelecom transaction, along with
Regional's corporate restructuring plan proves that management is
determined to grow the company in the long term despite a decline in
basic cable subscribers. We feel that investors are unduly punishing
Regional's stock price. We continue to believe that management's
opportunistic changes will eventually pay off and its stock price will
appreciate again.
September 14, 2001
Regional Cable is now a subsidiary of the new
holding company structure, Persona Inc. (TSE: PSA). Regional Cable
shareholders have become holders of Persona on a one-for-one basis. As
previously discussed, the corporate structure reorganization will allow
Persona to pursue opportunities outside of Canada.
December 28, 2001
In August 2001, Persona announced that it entered
into a letter of agreement to purchase Amtelecom, subject to due
diligence and Amtelecom shareholder approval. In the process of due
diligence it was discovered that there was a pending CRTC decision that
could be material to the assets in question. In turn, further Persona
and Ametelecom discussions led to a price adjustment based on the
pending CRTC decision. A cap of 10% of the original purchase price on
any price reduction was agreed upon.
The CRTC decision was released on December 14 and
Persona determined that it would materially affect the revenue stream of
AGI Cablevision. Subsequently, AGI's Board was not satisfied with the
additional proposed changes Persona put forth and consequently has
cancelled its special meeting of shareholders on January 29, 2002. At
this point, we are uncertain if any further discussions will develop
between the two parties.
In the meantime, management has stuck to its
strategy and continues to acquire cable assets. A recent purchase of 2
cablesystems in Newfoundland added 700 customers to its base. We
continue to view Persona as a fundamentally undervalued stock. We will
closely monitor the progression of discussion between Persona and
Amtelecom.
May 10, 2002
As indicated in our previous update on Persona,
the proposed acquisition of Amtelecom was not proceeding smoothly.
On March 6, in a tersely worded press release, Persona and Amtelecom
announced that discussions were officially terminated. However,
Persona is continuing with its strategy to diversify operations outside
of Canada and has expanded to the Caribbean.
The Company has acquired all of the common shares
of Columbus Communications Limited, the largest shareholder of Cable
Bahamas. With over 53,000 basic subscribers and 29,000 pay-TV
units, Cable Bahamas has a penetration rate of approximately 70% of
homes, hotels and businesses in the region. Operations are growing
and are quite profitable. In 2001, revenue grew from US$25.9 million to
US$30.9 million, an increase of 19%. Net income (after preferred
share dividends) was US$7.3 million in fiscal 2001, flat when compared
to fiscal 2000 results.
In addition to these developments, Persona has
also released its fiscal 2001 results. The Company earned $0.41
per share (before unusual gains) in 2001 on revenue of $100.3 million
compared to $0.37 and $96.9 million respectively in 2000. Though
cable subscribers declined to 231,900 from 236,100, digital cable
subscribers grew to 8,235 from 4,825 and Internet subscribers grew to
7,430 from 900 on a year over year basis. We look for Persona's
new Caribbean operations to make a positive contribution to both revenue
and earnings once the deal closes in the third quarter of 2002.
December 27, 2002
Throughout most of 2002, the shares of Persona,
along with many other cable operators, have been under considerable
pressure. Investors have been particularly concerned with Persona's
level of basic cable net subscriber loss, otherwise known as
"subscriber churn". Over the course of the 2002 fiscal year,
Persona lost 19,230 net subscribers and ended the year with a total of
213,400 basic cable customers. Although disappointing, the churn slowed
to 6,350 subscribers in the second half of 2002, which is almost 50%
below the level of net subscriber loss in the first six months of the
year.
Management believes that the continuing rollout of
digital cable services contributed to the reduced net subscriber loss in
the second half of the year. Digital subscribers seem to be more
reluctant to switch to DTH services (direct-to-home satellite
broadcasts) than basic cable subscribers (who receive lower quality
analogue signals). In fact, Persona has nearly doubled the number of
digital cable subscribers to 15,995 from 8,235 a year ago. The recent
acquisition of Cable Bahamas should add 55,000 new cable subscribers,
which will provide a platform to grow both digital and Internet services
in the Caribbean.
The financial results have yet to show the impact
of the recent restructuring initiative in Canada and the Cable Bahamas
acquisition. In fiscal 2002, revenue grew slightly more than 6% to reach
$106.6 million from $100.3 million in 2001. Unfortunately, earnings per
share declined to $0.39 from $0.41 due to margin compression. The
increase in signal and copyright costs on core cable services, the
expansion of digital cable services and the subscriber churn all had a
detrimental impact on the Company's profitability. However, we believe
that management will make the most of Persona's expansion to the
Caribbean, which will be reflected in the financial statements going
forward.
If the acquisition proceeds as planned and the
financial results improve, investors' confidence in the Company should
recover. We also view positively the recent management decision to
restructure the Board of Directors. This will allow for three new
independent Directors, which should reduce shareholders' perceptions
regarding self-dealing.
September 12, 2003
Persona Inc. is a very different company today
than when we purchased stock in its predecessor, Regional Cablesystems
Inc. The Company was originally a niche-player that focused on
consolidating rural, private cable companies in Canada quite cheaply at
1/3 to 1/2 the going rate per subscriber. We really liked this strategy.
We believed that once the Company had acquired a portfolio of cable
assets of sufficient scale, it would have become an attractive takeover
candidate in its own right. As such we were content to own this security
for significant capital appreciation potential.
Somewhere along the line, Persona ran into
difficulties. The proposed Amtelecom purchase fell through and
escalating subscriber churn due to DTH satellite competition raised
investors' concerns. The Company then purchased all of the common shares
of Columbus Communications Limited, the largest shareholder of Cable
Bahamas in an attempt to improve its financial performance. This
acquisition was a clear departure from the Company's intended strategy.
Nonetheless we gave management the benefit of the doubt. Overall we had
hoped for a positive contribution to both revenue and earnings.
Unfortunately, this whole process has been slow to materialize,
investors seemed to have lost interest and the stock has plummeted.
While it has recovered a bit in price and a new group of management and
directors have been added to the Company, we are no longer comfortable
with this security. While the risk of the Company selling out all or
part is a possibility, we have decided to liquidate our entire position
in Persona Inc. and are looking to put the capital toward other
opportunities.
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