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March 21, 2003
The U.S. hotel industry continues to be negatively
impacted by war with Iraq, a perceived threat to homeland security and a
cautious outlook for the US economy. Business travel, which represents 75%
of Prime's revenue, has been particularly hard hit as many businesses have
put travel plans on hiatus or have scaled back in an effort to cut costs.
For the fourth quarter of 2002, revenue per available room (REVPAR) at
Prime's comparable owned and leased hotels decreased 5% as compared to the
fourth quarter of 2001. Prime reported a net loss before asset
transactions for the quarter of $2.9 million, or $0.06 per share, compared
to income of $0.8 million, or $0.02 per share, for the same period a year
ago. For the full year net income before asset transactions and other
charges was $5.8 million or $0.13 per share, compared to $26.6 million or
$0.58 per share for 2001.
Since October, PDQ's share performance has lagged.
After reaching over $9 in December, the shares are now trading between $5
and $6. PDQ shares could appear fairly valued to those investors who take
into consideration only the company's current levels of cash flow and
occupancy rates. We believe however that when PDQ's normalized cash flow
and occupancy rates are considered, that is those that can be expected to
occur throughout an entire business cycle, its assets are actually worth
much more.
PDQ shares have been subject to a number of analyst
downgrades in recent months. In December PDQ purchased an interest in the
Sheraton Meadowlands Hotel and Conference Center, located in East
Rutherford New Jersey and in January purchased an interest in the Holiday
Inn Select Hotel, located in Old Quebec City. News of the acquisitions was
not well received by some Wall Street research departments who viewed the
purchases as a departure from the company's stated strategy of divesting
its hotel portfolio and transitioning into a fee based franchising
company. We believe that management at Prime Hospitality is not departing
from its long-term strategy, a strategy that since January 1999 has
resulted in the sale of $400 million in assets, a $300 million reduction
in long term debt and share repurchases totaling over 10 million or 20% of
the outstanding float. The hotel real estate market is currently very weak
and we believe management is being opportunistic by purchasing hotels at a
discount.
PDQ shares now trade at a 60% discount to its
replacement value and a 66% discount to book value. Keep in mind that CEO
A.F. Petrocelli has great incentive to create shareholder value given that
he owns 2.5 million PDQ shares with options to purchase another 4.8
million at prices higher than the current market price. After war with
Iraq is rectified, and once homeland security concerns begin to subside,
we expect that business travel will gradually return to previous levels.
At that point, PDQ shares should recover and start to reflect the net
asset value of the company.
August 22, 2003
On July 31st Prime Hospitality (PDQ) released its
second quarter results. Net income before asset transactions was $2.3
million, or $.05 per share, compared to $6.1 million, or $.13 per share
for the second quarter of 2002. Revenue per available room (REVPAR)
decreased by 3.7% in the quarter versus last year reflecting the continued
weakness is business travel. Although REVPAR decreased in the quarter the
trend is encouraging when looked at on a monthly basis. REVPAR decreased
7%, 2% and increased 1% in the months of April, May and June respectively,
indicating that business travel appears to be picking up. This statistic
has not gone unnoticed by the investment community. PDQ shares have
rallied 22% so far in August and have more than doubled since falling as
low as $4.53 in March.
What is also encouraging is the fact that CEO A.F.
Petrocelli continues to buy shares of PDQ for his own account. Since April
of this year, Mr. Petrocelli has purchased more than 1 million shares,
increasing his stake in the company to nearly 8%. It is also important to
remember that most of his stock options become "in the money"
around $9 a share and are immediately exercisable in the event the company
is sold. A sale of the company at a premium to the current stock price
would be a large windfall for the CEO and we believe this strategic option
for the company has not been lost on him.
Finally, we remain convinced that PDQ shares are
still undervalued at these levels. With ownership of 16,000 rooms and an
enterprise value of $640 million, investors are currently valuing PDQ
shares at only $40k a room. This compares with a book value of $60k per
room, or $15.20 a share and replacement cost of $65k-$70k per room. It
should also be noted that PDQ has recently sold hotels from its portfolio
for between $80k-$85k a room. We expect PDQ shares to further appreciate.
Signs are beginning to point to a rebound in the U.S. economy and this
should result in increased occupancy rates at PDQ's brands and ultimately
higher earnings for PDQ.
November 7, 2003
An increase in leisure travel over the summer helped
PDQ achieve an increase in revenue per available room (REVPAR) of 0.3%
compared to last year. This represents the first increase in REVPAR since
the first quarter of 2001. PDQ's earnings before interest, taxes, and
depreciation (EBITDA), which declined 7%, was a marked improvement
compared with previous quarters of double digits declines. While business
conditions are still challenging, we are becoming more confident that the
worst is probably behind PDQ, and that it has reached a turning point in
its business cycle.
PDQ is slowly beginning to benefit from stronger
growth in the U.S economy. GDP rose 7.2% in the third quarter, the highest
level seen since 1984. While leisure travel was strong in the quarter, PDQ
has experienced only a modest recovery in cooperate travel, its largest
customer market. This observation should not discourage investors, as room
demand at PDQ's hotels, historically, tends to lag the economy as well as
that of its competitors. While a little patience may be required,
investors in the meantime can take comfort in the fact that PDQ shares
still trade at a 37% discount to its book value of $15.21.
March 19, 2004
On February 12th 2004 Prime Hospitality reported its
results for the three months and year ended December 31, 2003. Prime
reported a small loss of $1.3 million or $0.03 per share for the quarter
compared to a loss of $2.8 million, or $0.06 per share last year. For the
year, Prime lost $2.5 million or $0.06 per share compared to net income
before asset transactions of $5.8 million, or $0.13 per share for the
comparable period in 2002. Revenue per available room (REVPAR) decreased
3.3% for the year to $41.77 from $43.18 last year. This decrease was a
result of lower rates, which were partially offset by higher occupancy
levels.
On February 20th Prime Hospitality announced that it
has signed an agreement with Expedia.com and Hotels.com to provide
customers with access to all of Prime's hotels. Under the agreement, both
of the websites will present prices to customers which are equal to the
rates sold through Prime's own branded website. The agreement also calls
for the joint development of a direct connection to Expedia.com and
Hotels.com into Prime's Central Reservation System making it more accurate
and cost effective.
Despite a nearly two-fold increase in price in the
last twelve months, shares of Prime Hospitality continue to trade below
their book value, replacement cost and net asset value. On March 5th,
Extended Stay America, a publicly traded operator of hotels, agreed to be
purchased by buyout firm Blackstone Group for $19.625 per share. This
price represented a 25% premium over the previous days closing price and
translates to a purchase price of approximately $61,000 per room. Shares
of Prime Hospitality, which offers comparable, if not more upscale rooms
and services, are currently trading at approximately $43,000 per room. We
feel this transaction not only sets a precedent for asset values in the
industry, but also highlights Prime's significant market under valuation.
This fact could become a major positive catalyst toward a meaningful
appreciation of Prime Hospitality shares.
August 20, 2004
On August 18th 2004 Prime Hospitality Corp. (PDQ)
announced that it had signed a definitive agreement to be acquired by
affiliates of the Blackstone Group for $12.25 per share, a 42% premium
to its closing price of $8.63 per share. The deal values PDQ at a 20%
discount to its book value of $15.24 per share and implies a value of
roughly $48,500 per room. In March The Blackstone Group purchased hotel
operator Extended Stay America for approximately $61,000 per room.
The deal includes a break up fee that would pay
Blackstone $23 million + $4 million for expenses or roughly $0.61 per
share should PDQ terminate the deal. Although the agreement does not
allow PDQ to solicit bids from other parties, there is nothing
preventing a potential unsolicited company from making a higher offer
for PDQ. Given that Blackstone’s offer of $12.25 per share is below PDQ’s
book value and lower than the price per room it paid for Extended Stay
America, we have decided to hold onto our PDQ shares given the
possibility that a better offer could be on the way.
October 8,
2004
On October 6th 2004, shareholders of Prime
Hospitality Corp (PDQ) voted in favour of the proposed acquisition of
PDQ by affiliates of the Blackstone Group for $12.25 per share.
Approximately 99% of stockholders present and voting adopted the merger
agreement, representing approximately 65% of the total number of
outstanding shares entitled to vote. Blackstone’s offer was 24% below
PDQ’s book value of $15.24 and valued the hotel assets at roughly
$48,500 per room, below the roughly $61,000 per room it paid for
Extended Stay America in March. Given that, we had decided to hold onto
our shares in the hope that another bidder would emerge and offer a
higher price. As it turned out, no other bidder came forward and the
deal was accepted. Therefore, we plan to tender our shares and use the
proceeds towards new investment ideas..
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