|
Norske Skog Canada (TSX:NS) |
|
 |
|
|
 |
 |
|
|
| ABOUT THE COMPANY |
|
Norske Skog Canada Limited, known as NorskeCanada, produces groundwood specialty papers, including newsprint, containerboard and
pulp. Originally known as Fletcher Challenge Canada, the predecessor company was acquired in July 2000 by Norske
Skogindustrier of Norway who then renamed the subsidiary Norske Skog Canada. In August 2001, NorskeCanada acquired Pacifica Papers and created the
corporate entity that we see today. |
|
 |
|
|
| FINANCIAL DATA |
| |
2000 |
2001 |
2002 |
| Earnings per Share ($) |
1.32 |
0.32 |
-0.64 |
| Price to Earnings (times) |
3.0 |
12.5 |
N/M |
| Dividend ($)* |
0.60 |
12.30* |
0.00 |
| Dividend Yield (%) |
15.00 |
307.50* |
0.00 |
| Book Value ($) |
17.43 |
5.93 |
5.46 |
| Price to Book Value (times) |
0.23 |
0.67 |
0.73 |
| * A special dividend of $12.00
per share was paid in 2001 |
|
|
|
| PRICE GRAPH |
 |
|
 |
|
|
| WHY ABC FUNDS BOUGHT THIS COMPANY |
|
NorskeCanada, a deep cyclical stock, came under pressure as printers and
publishers faced an extremely difficult environment in 2002 and 2003. A slowdown
in advertising spending created excess capacity across the industry, depressed
prices and forced the Company to take downtime. NorskeCanada reported a net loss
of $0.64 per share in 2002 and a net loss of $0.35 per share in the first nine
months of 2003. However, the Company is generating cash and recorded $47.5
million of EBITDA in the first nine months of the current fiscal year. With the
economic recovery well underway, we believe that it is only a matter of time
before commodity prices improve and NorskeCanada returns to profitability.
Several key factors gave us the confidence to invest in NorskeCanada despite
the difficulties of the past few years. First, NorskeCanada traded at, and still
trades at, a discount to its book value of $5.12. At $4.00, the Company was
priced at only 0.8 times book value. The stock eventually bottomed at 0.6 times
book value in mid November 2003, a level that has traditionally provided strong
support for the share price.
Next, we looked at historic levels of EBITDA to gauge the Company's upside
given an economic recovery. When the stock bottomed in mid November,
NorskeCanada traded at an enterprise value of less than 5 times 2000 EBITDA of
$304.4 million, which has typically been the low for the stock. Looking forward,
EBITDA could improve significantly from the level last seen in 2000. Management
has stated that of the $115 million in synergies achieved from the Pacifica
Papers acquisition in 2001, $110 million was related to EBITDA improvements.
Using an enterprise value to projected EBITDA multiple of only 5 times, the
stock offered an attractive potential return.
Finally, we checked the Company's liquidity and financial flexibility in case
the anticipated recovery takes longer than expected. As at September 30, 2003
NorskeCanada's net debt to capitalization was 45%. The Company had $10.2 million
of cash on hand and could access almost all of a $350 million operating loan.
Because the first senior debt repayment is not due until March 2009, we were
satisfied that the Company could meet its obligations comfortably. Putting all
of these pieces together, we believed that the stock had bottomed for the cycle
and it was time to purchase some shares for our funds.
ABC Funds
January 9, 2004
|
|
 |
|
|
| UPDATES |
|
May 14, 2004
In the midst of the recent stock
market volatility, we sold our entire position in Norske Skog Canada.
Although Norske reported its tenth consecutive quarterly loss on April
29, much of the loss could be attributed to the planned two-month
shutdown of the Company’s Crofton and Elk Falls kraft mills. This
result was not unexpected and we were more interested in the Company’s
outlook for the pulp, paper and newsprint markets. On the conference
call Norske’s management noted stronger pulp prices, better fundamentals
for most paper grades and outlined $44 million of annual performance
improvements. However, the Company acknowledged that increased economic
activity has not translated into any meaningful recovery of the
newsprint market. In a nutshell, while we believe that the Company has
worked through the trough of the commodity cycle, improved earnings
performance remains somewhat uncertain and will be a function of a
further improvement in commodity prices and a better economy.
While the stock market has
anticipated improving conditions and Norske’s shares rebounded from
$3.00 in mid November to trade in a range around the mid $4 level, we
are not so confident. Because the visibility of a recovery in the
newsprint market is poor and we are seeing other more attractive
opportunities, we decided to liquidate our position in Norske.
|
|
|
 |
|
|
| INVESTOR RELATIONS CONTACT INFORMATION |
| Address : |
Ralph Leverton, VP, Finance
and Chief Financial Officer, 250 Howe Street, Vancouver, British
Columbia, V6C 3R8, Canada |
| Phone : |
604-654-4319 |
Web Address : |
www.norskecanada.com |
| Fax : |
604-654-4070 |
Email : |
investor@norskecanada.com |
|
|
 |
|
|
| LINKS TO OTHER INFORMATION |
| Quotes |
News |
Profile |
Filings |
|
|
|
 |
|
|
|
|