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October 28, 2005
On October 24th,
Legacy Hotels reported its operating results for the first nine months
of 2005. Considering that travel to Canada from south of the border hit
a 26 year low during the third quarter, the REIT’s results were more
than respectable. Legacy’s RevPar (revenue per available room) grew 4.4%
when compared to the third quarter of 2004. The portfolio’s strongest
results continue to be posted by Delta branded hotels and the REIT’s two
U.S. Fairmont branded hotels. City centre locations in Montreal, Vancouver, and Toronto continue to be
laggards when compared to the growth demonstrated by the Trust’s
Canadian peers. Taking a step back, we would like to note that Legacy’s
revenue and EBITDA per room owned were the highest and third highest,
respectively, since the REIT’s initial public offering. While we do not
expect a quick recovery with respect to the Trust’s core operations, we
are encouraged with the various initiatives they have outlined that will
narrow the gap between revenue and earnings.
November 25, 2005
On Nov. 7th, U.S. regulatory filings revealed that
billionaire investor Carl Icahn had accumulated a 9.3% stake in Fairmont
Hotels & Resorts Inc. In the documents filed with regulators, Mr. Icahn
cited Fairmont’s undervalued share price for the reason behind his
investment. Elaborating further, Mr. Icahn suggested that Fairmont
executives pursue strategic alternatives such as asset sales and share
buybacks to unlock shareholder value. Given the demand for hotel assets
from private equity groups, supply constraints, prohibitive construction
costs, and historically low financing costs, we agree that many hotel
assets are not properly priced in the public markets. As evidence,
another ABC Funds holding, La Quinta Properties, agreed to be purchased
by The Blackstone Group two days after Mr. Icahn’s Fairmont stake was
made public.
We believe that, on balance, this news is positive
for unit holders of Legacy Hotels REIT. While it is too early to
speculate on Mr. Icahn’s endgame, one possible option may be to put
Fairmont “in play”. Any purchaser of Fairmont would have to decide what
to do with the Company’s 24% interest in Legacy. Considering that Legacy
is immaterial in every respect to Fairmont’s bottom line, the most
obvious course of action would be to carve out Legacy and deliver it to
a real estate player who could unlock its underlying value. Fairmont,
remaining Legacy’s property manager, could use the sale proceeds (which
could be around $220 million) to reinvigorate its focus on its core
business of hotel and resort management.
Interestingly, Legacy would command a higher
valuation outside of a REIT structure. A private entity or corporation
could unlock Legacy’s hidden assets to the fullest. Legacy has
identified numerous value creating opportunities such as condo
conversions, joint venture construction projects, and land sales.
However, Legacy’s Declaration of Trust, which explicitly states that its
reason for being is to pay out a stream of income to unit holders,
restricts its ability to employ risk capital. Under a corporate
structure, significant risk capital could be deployed while
simultaneously reinvesting the $33,000,000 that is paid out to unit
holders every year. Given that Legacy has nearly $2.00 per unit in land
(adjusted to market value), and an estimated $0.50 - $1.50 in
incremental development opportunities, Legacy’s net asset value (NAV)
could be more than $10.00 per unit if its assets were placed under a
different corporate structure.
Of course, Fairmont may ultimately decide to
maintain the status quo. Fairmont and Legacy have stressed that their
relationship is strategically important. Whether or not any immediate
action results from Mr. Icahn’s interest in Fairmont, Legacy’s
compelling under-valuation does not change.
February 3, 2006
With Kingdom Hotels rescuing Fairmont from the
clutches of Carl Icahn, the fate of Legacy Hotels is now open to
speculation. While Legacy was not mentioned in Fairmont’s initial press
release, we believe that Legacy will be the focus of Raffles/Fairmont
executives as the deal comes to a close in the second quarter of 2006.
The absence of Legacy from the deal has led some to believe that the
Trust’s fate is on the backburner. However, we
point to the fact that Legacy owns 40% of Fairmont branded hotels in
Canada and 24% of Fairmont branded hotels around the world. Clearly,
Legacy plays an important role in the future of the Fairmont brand.
We see three clear alternatives in front of the
Fairmont/Raffles organization: purchase Legacy outright and fold it into
Fairmont/Raffles, facilitate the sale of the Trust to a third party, or
sell its 24% interest to the public market. While status quo was once a
viable alternative, Fairmont’s current relationship with Legacy does not
make sense within the context of an organization with over 120 hotels in
24 countries. From a financial perspective, Legacy was already
non-essential to Fairmont; now, as part of a much larger entity, its
contribution to the bottom line is even less significant. The old
Fairmont management was content to let its real estate portfolio, which
included Legacy, languish despite record real estate values (which
opened up the door to Carl Icahn). We suspect that the new
Fairmont/Raffles team will critically analyze the $180,000,000 that is
tied up in this underperforming investment and eventually realize the
true value of Legacy’s portfolio for the benefit of all investors.
February 9, 2007
When we purchased Legacy Hotels late in 2005 we
envisioned holding the security for many years as the REIT undertook
initiatives to bridge the gap between its market price and the fair
value of its hotel properties. With Legacy units up approximately 50%
since our purchase, we felt it important to re-examine our position in
light of the current environment.
The real estate landscape has changed dramatically
over the last year. Record investment activity in the hotel industry
($2.6 billion last year in Canada alone) has pushed capitalization rates
to increasingly low levels. For example, the cap rate on the recent sale
of seven Fairmont hotels to Oxford was below 5.00%. Many hotel
transactions south of the border have been consummated with rates
between 5.50% and 6.50%. Legacy’s unit price has continued to rise as
lower and lower transaction multiples are reported.
Now trading close to $11.00 and with an implied
cap rate between 6% - 6.5%, we believe that Legacy’s units appropriately
reflect the fundamental value of the REIT’s properties. As outlined in
our previous updates, we have always felt that Legacy would be an
attractive takeover target, and we recognize that in light of the recent
frenzied demand for hotel properties the REIT could be taken out at a
higher level. Amidst such euphoria, we see signs on the horizon that
lead us to take a more cautious stance. Rock bottom cap rates make it
virtually impossible for publicly traded REITs such as Legacy to execute
accretive deals. With the cost of capital above cap rates, higher debt
levels and aggressive assumptions about future performance are required
to justify deals. More broadly, we question if such low cap rates (in
some cases below T-bills) are appropriate for such a notoriously
cyclical industry that demands large capital expenditure to grow at a
rate higher than inflation.
With so many parties armed with cheap money,
investor speculation could push Legacy’s units higher. However, we are
currently finding more compelling opportunities on a risk/reward basis.
Accordingly, we have liquidated our entire position in Legacy. We take
comfort from the fact that many long-standing industry participants such
as Sam Zell and Lou Maroun have decided to take advantage of the
frenzied activity to take their chips off the table as well.
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