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Value Vault: Archived Analysis
NOTE: This page has been archived and the commentary, data, and links on this page are current as of the last date indicated.
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Gulf Canada Resources Limited (TSX:GOU) |
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| ABOUT THE COMPANY |
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Gulf Canada Resources Limited is a senior Canadian oil and
natural gas exploration and development company. Gulf holds a diversified
portfolio of Western Canadian properties, including a 9% interest in the
Syncrude Project. Other assets are based in the East Coast of Canada, the
Mackenzie Delta, the Dutch North Sea and Indonesia, through the Company's 72%
stake in Gulf Indonesia Resources Limited. Since 1998 Gulf has concentrated on
debt and cost reduction in an effort to strengthen its balance sheet and improve
operational performance. With the Company's debt now under control, Gulf was
recently able to announce a takeover bid for Crestar Energy.
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| FINANCIAL DATA |
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1999 |
2000 |
2001e |
| Cash Flow per Share ($) |
1.39 |
2.78 |
2.75 |
| Price to Cash Flow (times) |
5.4 |
2.7 |
2.7 |
| Dividend ($) |
- |
- |
- |
| Dividend Yield (%) |
- |
- |
- |
| Net Asset Value ($) |
8.00 |
10.00 |
10.00 |
| Price to Net Asset Value (times) |
0.94 |
0.75 |
0.75 |
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| PRICE GRAPH |
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| WHY ABC FUNDS BOUGHT THIS COMPANY |
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Established in 1906, Gulf Canada built a diversified asset
base of oil and natural gas producing properties. However, in September 1997 the
combination of excessive debt and collapsing oil prices led to a precipitous
share price decline from a high of $13.75. New management was brought in at the
beginning of 1998 and assigned the task of reducing the debt load, which had
ballooned to approximately $2.7 billion. Mr. Dick Auckinleck, the new President
and CEO, also set about rebalancing Gulf's portfolio with assets that had lower
decline rates and higher growth potential to ensure future profitability. Gulf's
share price bottomed at $3.33 in February 1999 before investors' confidence
returned and the share price recovery began.
At the end of the most recent fiscal year, Gulf's
financial results showed a marked improvement as a result of management's
efforts. Though Gulf lost $0.58 per share, this was significantly better than
the $1.66 loss in 1998. Cash flow per share showed a similar improvement,
increasing from $0.98 in 1998 to $1.39 in 1999, up 42%. Management was on pace
to reduce long-term debt to $1.5 billion and return to profitability for the
first time since 1997. In fact, at the end of the first half of 2000, earnings
per share were $0.08 and cash generated from operations totaled $1.15 per share.
Given the exceptional oil and natural gas commodity price levels, good financial
performance is anticipated for the balance of 2000 and into 2001.
The expected financial results would only improve with the
potential acquisition of Crestar Energy. The announcement was officially made on
October 2, with Gulf stating its intention to purchase Crestar for approximately
$2.3 billion, including the assumption of $565 million of Crestar debt. Gulf
offered 3.333 Gulf shares and $3.25 for each Crestar share, which implied a
takeover value of $29.75 per share, based on Gulf's most recent closing price of
$7.95.
Should Crestar's shareholders accept the takeover offer,
the proposed deal would be beneficial both financially and strategically. The
combined entity would have a lower debt to cash flow multiple and improved
earnings and cash flow. Further, Gulf has over $1 billion in tax pools, which
could be used to shelter Crestar's taxable earnings in the years to come.
Strategically, Gulf's assets have good mid to long-term prospects and Crestar's
assets have good short-term prospects. The merged company would be able to
quickly generate cash that could be used to accelerate the development of
various promising properties. In terms of size, the combined entity would be the
fifth largest independent Canadian exploration and production company.
Gulf Canada, even without the integration of Crestar
Energy, offers excellent value. Gulf is currently trading at a discount to its
net asset value and at only 3 times 2000 expected cash flow. The Company has
turned around its operations, stabilized its balance sheet and expects to return
to profitability at the end of this year. Without a controlling shareholder,
Gulf is itself an acquisition target, as any of the large independent producers
could be interested in Gulf's diversified domestic and international assets. It
is also worth noting that the Company is listed on the NYSE, which enhances
its profile in the eyes of American oil and gas producers and investors alike.
The acquisition of Crestar would be immediately accretive to earnings and cash
flow, but even on a stand-alone basis Gulf is an excellent value play in the
outperforming oil and gas sector.
ABC Funds
October 13, 2000
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| UPDATES |
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November 17, 2000
In early November Gulf Canada Resources made two important
announcements. The first press release announced the tender of over 95
percent of Crestar's shares, or approximately 54.4 million shares on a
fully diluted basis, in response to Gulf's takeover bid. Because more
than 90 percent of Crestar's outstanding shares were successfully
tendered, Gulf will exercise its right to purchase the balance
outstanding. The second announcement was the release of Gulf's third
quarter financial results. The Company reported good numbers, with cash
flow from operations per share of $0.72, up 50% from the third quarter
in 1999. Earnings per share of $0.10 were greatly improved from the
$0.03 earned in the comparable period in 1999.
The favourable response to the takeover offer lends credence to the
combination of Crestar's short-term cash generating ability with the
potential of Gulf's longer-term assets. Gulf's solid third quarter
results mark a return to financial stability and management can now
focus on disciplined growth, to the benefit of the shareholders.
March 9, 2001
Gulf Canada Resources recently reported
exceptional fourth quarter and fiscal 2000 financial results. Including
the immediately accretive Crestar acquisition, which closed in the
fourth quarter, Gulf generated over $1 billion in cash over the course
of the year. On a per share basis, cash flow increased by 100 percent,
from $1.39 in 1999 to $2.78 in 2000. Earnings per share for the year
totaled $0.30, vastly better than the $0.58 loss recorded in 1999.
In addition to these solid financial results, Gulf
also reported a strong operational performance. Excluding the Crestar
acquisition, approximately 200 percent of reserves were replaced at a
reasonable price. Finding and development expenses, excluding Syncrude
operations and the Crestar acquisition, of $5.16 per boe (barrel of oil
equivalent) were well below the Company’s three-year average of $6.05
per boe.
The most tangible benefit from the tremendous cash
flow from operations was Gulf’s ability to reduce net debt to 41% of
capital at year-end. Due to the Company’s stabilizing financial
position, senior debt was upgraded for the first time in almost ten
years. Management was then able to restructure existing debt in order to
improve financial flexibility and reduce interest costs. Given these
developments, Gulf Canada Resources has shown that it is now capable of
disciplined, profitable growth in the years ahead.
June 1, 2001
On May 29, 2001 Gulf Canada and Conoco jointly
announced that their boards of directors have unanimously approved the
acquisition of Gulf Canada by Conoco for $12.40 per common share. The
cash offer represents a 35% premium over Gulf's closing price on Friday,
May 25. In addition to the $6.7 billion in cash required to purchase
Gulf's outstanding shares, Conoco will assume approximately $3.1 billion
of Gulf Canada's net debt, preferred stock and minority interests.
We believe that the deal recognizes a fair price
for Gulf's assets and highlights the tremendous value that exists in the
Canadian oil and gas sector. Based on the Company's estimates, the cost
of the transaction was approximately $9.60 per proven BOE and only four
times 2001 expected cash flow. All in all, we are very pleased to see
that management's efforts to create a balanced portfolio of properties
while maintaining a strong balance sheet were rewarded. The friendly
nature of the deal and the $220 million break fee suggests that a better
bid will not materialize and therefore we sold our entire position of
Gulf Canada Resources.
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