Value Library
The following is an
excerpt from the ABC Perspective - April 1999 - Pg. 12
Some General Thoughts From a Value
Manager
I am
constantly asked, "What do you think of this topsy-turvey stock
market?" and "What about the latest Internet IPO?" But I
am perplexed. There is no rhyme or reason to a lot of what is going on
in the markets.
The Internet day-trading by
the many unseasoned speculators has created a whole new meaning to
the terms "trading" and "speculation". In the
old days, people would talk about the "day-trader" - an
individual who bought or sold a position in the morning and closed
out the position before the end of the day. Now I am hearing about
"minute trades" - a sixty second transaction of buys and
sells. Obviously, the Internet has spawned a stock market trading
mania which is producing split second haphazard investment
decisions with no analysis. Ultimately this is fueling even more
stock market volatility.
This whole phenomenon has
encouraged a huge sense of instant gratification. Individuals full
of hope and eternal optimism have pushed up internet and other
related stocks to incomprehensible price levels. Honestly, I am
bewildered for a few reasons:
-
As a former MBA and CFA student,
this lack of analysis and rank speculation run counter to all my
business education training.
-
As a fundamental value investor,
I am used to tedious in-depth analysis of companies.
-
I am getting an incredible sense
of déjà vu of previous speculative binges such as the Dutch Tulip
Mania, which ultimately ended in a severe market correction.
I am astounded also because
I am noticing companies with little or no sales, let alone
earnings, which are trading at millions or billions of dollars of
market capitalization. There is also a dichotomy in the market
between Internet, high-tech, large liquid companies versus
small/mid capitalization out-of-favour value plays.
As a fundamental analyst one
must refrain from joining the frenzied mania and instead hunt for
cheap stocks. Sticking to one's discipline is key. Strangely
enough, there are still a number of cheap value stocks which
haven't been discovered. In some cases we have scratched our heads
and wondered why they haven't already traded substantially higher.
These value shares are the exact opposite or flip side of the
vastly overvalued Internet stocks. Needless to say, we hold a
number of these shares such as AT Plastics, First Marathon, Primex
Forest, Scott's Restaurants, Strongco Inc., etc. which have not
yet participated in this market rally. The question is when and
what catalyst will precipitate buying in these stocks. An
interesting value anomaly in our ABC portfolio is Harrowston Inc.
Harrowston's hidden value has not yet been discovered. Let me
explain.
Harrowston Inc., a
diversified industrial holding company involved in the chemical,
food and environment industries recently completed the sale of
non-core real estate property located in downtown Vancouver. The
net proceeds of $17.4 million when added to the company's treasury
gives Harrowston over $185 million of cash or $6.70 per share. Its
book and net asset value are about $8.50. With the stock trading
at about $5.50 Harrowston is interesting because a purchase of its
shares is a proxy for buying cash at a discount! The company has
recognized this fact and has been repurchasing shares in the
market.
As a parting comment,
regardless of the Internet stock mania and their accompanying big
price gains, we will stick to our fundamental analysis of tedious
stock picking. When all is said and done, we believe these out of
favour value stocks represent solid investments with excellent
longer-term prospects.
Irwin A. Michael, CFA
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