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March 28, 2002
After falling to a low of $3.81 on October 19, 2001,
shares of Magellan Aerospace have recovered and stabilized. Investor
sentiment has improved and although the outlook for the commercial aerospace
sector is still weak, the situation is less dire. Additionally, defence
spending has ramped-up and is expected to grow as a proportion of the
Company's total revenue over the next few years.
Recent developments are a testament to Magellan's
strong positioning within the aerospace and defence sectors. The Company has
announced a Raytheon defence missile fin order, a U.S. Army tank engine
order, two long-term agreements with Pratt & Whitney Canada, an
extension of a CF18 fighter aircraft repair and overhaul contract and a
Northrop Grumman contract for F/A-18E/F structural components.
Despite the turmoil in the industry, Magellan
Aerospace reported solid operating results and continued profitability. In
the fourth quarter of 2001, the Company earned $0.14, down from $0.18 in the
comparable period last year. For fiscal 2001, the Company earned $0.62 per
share versus $0.59 in 2000. Importantly, free cash flow was used to reduce
total debt by approximately $23 million and the debt to capital ratio
improved from 44.7% to 38.2%, over the course of fiscal 2001. We believe
that the possibility of an opportunistic but accretive acquisition is good
given the strong balance sheet and the difficulties facing many smaller
companies in the sector.
September 13, 2002
As reported in the popular press, the major airlines
in the United States have yet to see a recovery in either leisure or
business travel. Because of the high fixed-cost nature of the business, some
of the weaker players in the industry have declared bankruptcy or are
rumoured to be considering bankruptcy. Even the more financially secure
airlines are struggling with weak profitability. In order to preserve
liquidity, capacity has been reduced, workforces have been cut and aircraft
orders and deliveries have been delayed. The fallout has impacted almost
every company in the aerospace sector, including Magellan Aerospace.
Although current climate is difficult, to say the least, the longer-term
outlook for Magellan remains good.
Despite our optimism, the financial results for the
first half of 2002 demonstrated the severity of the downturn in the sector.
Year to date, revenue has declined from $319 million to $233 million and
earnings have declined from $0.35 to $0.15 per share. In the second quarter
press release, management suggested that notwithstanding the decline in
revenue, the Company is seeing various opportunities to bid for new
business. Further, Magellan has won several contracts for both military and
civilian work since the beginning of the year, which will eventually flow
through to the bottom line. Importantly, Magellan's backlog, which now
exceeds a year's worth of revenue, has grown to its highest level since the
spring of 2001.
As we had suggested in a previous comment,
improvements in Magellan's balance sheet would allow the Company to take
advantage of the depressed valuations in the sector. On July 3, 2002
Magellan announced the acquisition of Haley Industries Limited, an aerospace
manufacturer that produces magnesium and aluminum castings. Although
Magellan has over 70% of the outstanding shares locked up, the offer was
extended and improved slightly in an effort to "encourage the deposit
of additional Haley shares". Magellan has estimated that the
acquisition of Haley's complementary business lines would prove to be
accretive in the order of $0.03 to $0.05 per share. Given the improving
backlog, the Haley acquisition and the opportunity to win new contracts or
make additional acquisitions, we continue to believe that Magellan will
prosper once the sector inevitably recovers.
November 8, 2002
The Magellan Aerospace story is little changed since
our last update. The recovery in the commercial aerospace sector has been
slower than expected, which has hindered share price performance. Further,
some of the military contracts that Magellan received, both before and after
September 11th, have yet to show up in the Company's financial results. We
believe that this is simply a timing issue related to the bureaucracy that
surrounds government spending. Magellan is expected to report third quarter
results shortly and we believe that the longer-term outlook is more
favourable than the quarterly results will indicate.
In the meantime, the Company is constantly searching
for takeover targets and is proceeding with the acquisition of Haley
Industries. On September 30, Magellan announced that approximately 83% of
Haley's outstanding shares were tendered to the revised offer. Magellan can
now acquire the balance of the shares in a subsequent transaction, directly
or indirectly, as described in the take-over bid circular. Management will
then be able to concentrate their efforts on the integrating Haley's
operations and maximizing the benefits of the acquisition. Hopefully
Magellan will continue to take advantage of the depressed valuations in the
sector and make additional strategic acquisitions in order to boost revenue
and earnings.
May 2, 2003
Every time we think that the commercial airline
business can't get any worse, it does. The industry is facing its own
perfect storm that started with the economic downturn and rising fuel
prices, was heightened by the events of 9-11 and was prolonged by the war
with Iraq. For a while, the Pacific Rim remained a bright spot amid the
turmoil in North America and Europe. However, SARS-related fears have now
severely curtailed air travel in the region, at least until the hysteria
settles down.
As a supplier to many of the major manufacturers in
the sector, Magellan Aerospace has seen its operating performance
deteriorate significantly. Revenues are depressed (as orders were delayed or
deferred and work stoppages disrupted business), margins are compressed (as
costs were allocated over a lower revenue base) and cash conservation is the
order of the day. In the Company's fourth quarter, earnings per share were
$0.00, excluding a $0.29 per share write-down of the Orenda Reciprocating
Engine Program. Magellan also disclosed that they expect to take a charge of
approximately $31 million in 2003 after closing its Fleet Industries plant
in Fort Erie, Ontario. Excluding unusual charges and write-downs, Magellan
managed to earn $0.17 per share in 2002. Considering the state of the global
airline industry, management's ability to turn any profit at all is a
testament to their determination to take the necessary steps to weather the
storm.
With a solid turnaround in the sector potentially
years away, we are less interested in forecasting the Company's earnings
than examining the Company's cash position and debt load. In the fourth
quarter of 2002, Magellan used $1 million of cash in operations compared to
generating $26 million in the fourth quarter of 2001. However, for the full
year the Company generated $3 million in cash from operations. This includes
the impact of a large but temporary inventory build at yearend due to
deferred orders and redundant working capital from the Haley acquisition.
Management expects to chew through the excess over the next few quarters and
free up some of this cash. Coupled with funds from operations, we believe
that Magellan has sufficient liquidity to meet its obligations through the
trough of the cycle.
After a difficult year, Magellan's financial leverage
increased from 2001. But remember that some of this debt was used to
purchase Haley Industries, a strategically sound acquisition that vertically
integrated the Company's casting, machining and assembly operations. Working
capital requirements and capital expenditures also contributed to the rising
debt load. However, Magellan Aerospace issued convertible debentures
subsequent to yearend that will be used to reduce total debt and improve
financial flexibility. Because the convertibles will be accounted for as
equity, Magellan's net debt to total capital should decline from 46% to just
above 30%. Cash flow management, with minimal capital spending, headcount
reductions and perhaps even further plant rationalizations will ensure the
long-term viability of the Company.
As we've suggested, the visibility of a turnaround in
the sector and, by extension, Magellan's profitability is poor. However,
Richard Neill, CEO, in a recently televised interview took the time to
discuss the differences between mainline carriers and regional carriers.
Regionals and discount carriers, Magellan's forte, are in far better shape
than mainlines and are continuing to order new planes. For example, JetBlue
placed an order with Airbus for 65 new A320s with options on another 50, as
recently as April 24. Regional Airlines Holdings placed an order for 10 Q400
(Dash-8) Turboprop aircraft with Bombardier Aerospace, with the option to
order an additional 15 aircraft, on April 24. FlyBE, a regional carrier in
the UK, signed a £520 million order for 17 Q400s with options on another 20
with Bombardier, on April 23. On January 24, Ryanair ordered up to 150
Boeing 737-800 aircraft to be delivered over an eight-year period, which
would make Ryanair Europe's largest international scheduled airline.
Although aircraft orders and deliveries are tracking well below historic
levels, at least some carriers are continuing to replace inefficient, older
aircraft or are looking to fill air travel demand in smaller, niche markets.
In short, this sector and the profitability for those
in the sector will eventually recover; just don't expect it to happen
overnight. Magellan Aerospace has positioned itself for the future and we
expect that the Company can successfully navigate this extremely difficult
and unpredictable period. We believe that the shares have been oversold and
expect them to recover to a more reasonable trading range as investors get a
grip on their emotions.
November 14, 2003
After reporting a decent second quarter, Magellan
Aerospace's third quarter financial results seem to have disappointed
investors. On a year over year basis revenue declined 8.7% to $102.2 million
from $111.9 million, the gross margin shrank to 11.3% from 13.3% and
earnings per share dropped to ($0.02) from $0.02. For those expecting a
quick or steady return to profitability, these headline numbers were a
reality check.
Without a doubt, this was a tough quarter for the
Company but management pointed to several mitigating factors that negatively
impacted the results. Excluding foreign exchange fluctuations, revenue in
the quarter, including the Haley acquisition, would have increased 3.4% over
last year. The top line was also dampened by extended summer shutdowns at
customer facilities and certain project delays in the quarter. The gross
margin was squeezed by lower than expected sales volumes, a shift in the
product mix and a stronger Canadian dollar. Essentially, inventory that was
purchased in prior periods with more expensive U.S. dollars flowed through
the income statement in the current quarter. All of these issues contributed
to the weaker net income and earnings per share.
Despite the soft results, management suggested that
investors should be more optimistic when looking to the fourth quarter and
beyond. In the press release, they pointed to better profitability in the
commercial airline sector, plans to increase capacity and a general
improvement in the economy. Further, foreign exchange hedges, inventory
purchased with cheaper U.S. dollars and a higher build rate for Boeing's 737
will all contribute to better results going forward. Having said that,
Magellan is not expected to return to historic levels of profitability
quickly.
Without a dramatic earnings recovery to drive the
stock in the near term, investors must focus on other factors. We were quite
pleased to see that the Company generated $3 million of cash from operations
in the third quarter, double the $1.5 million in the second quarter of this
year. We also liked the recently announced acquisition of Mayflower
Aerospace, a U.K. based aerospace firm. Magellan purchased Mayflower's
assets, a company with annual revenues of approximately $55 million, out of
receivership for $13.4 million. This acquisition is strategically important
because it will strengthen the Company's relationship with Airbus, which
played a role in awarding the assets to Magellan. Currently, management is
examining various options to minimize the cost of financing while protecting
the balance sheet. The positive cash flow and astute acquisitions allow us
to remain confident that Magellan will successfully navigate through the
trough of the aerospace cycle.
February 27, 2004
Magellan Aerospace recently announced a long-term agreement with General Electric to produce components for the GE F414 aircraft engine used on the Boeing F-18 Super Hornet jet. This contract is a good win for the Company’s military division and demonstrates the importance of long-term relationships with key manufacturers. Magellan currently supplies exhaust frames for the F414 but the agreement has been expanded to include the front engine frame and increase the volume of exhaust frames over the next 25 years. The required investment will be US$28 million over the next four years, which will be funded with internally generated cash flow and existing bank lines.
Although the military segment is gaining some traction, we still need a recovery in the commercial aerospace market. Recently, valuations across the sector have been improving with the uptick in airline traffic. Once the major US and Asian carriers return to profitability, we can look forward to new orders of commercial aircraft, which in turn leads to profit growth for the manufacturers. As always, the stock market acts as a discounting mechanism and is finally anticipating at least some of the turn in the cycle.
September 24, 2004
Magellan continues to bump along
the bottom of the aerospace cycle. The Company’s second quarter was a
difficult one, with the results negatively impacted by unfavourable
currency movements and lower margins. The margin issue actually sends
mixed signals regarding the health of the Company’s business and the
aerospace sector. In the short-term, margin pressure obviously hurts the
Company’s profitability. However, in this case margins were down because
several programs were ramping up to full production. Startup costs could
not yet be matched to revenue in the quarter, which caused the margin
compression. From a longer-term perspective, we were encouraged to see
these programs finally ramping up. Richard Neill, President and CEO,
suggested that this is a positive sign and that the Company will benefit
from a recovery in the aerospace market in the latter part of 2004 and
through 2005.
Unfortunately, the margin
compression, lower EBITDA and working capital requirements necessitated a
rights issue to comply with some of the Company’s bank covenants.
Shareholders were given the right to acquire one common share for every
seven rights held at a price of $2.75. The issue was oversubscribed, and
Magellan raised net proceeds of $31.1 million. Murray Edwards, the
Company’s Chairman and major shareholder, subscribed to $15 million of the
issue. Of the proceeds, 50% was applied to a permanent reduction of
long-term debt and 50% was applied to reduce the Company’s revolving line
of credit. Magellan expects to be in compliance with all of its current
bank covenants through 2005.
As a final thought, we would like
to point out that both Boeing and Airbus have indicated that orders and
deliveries are improving. Specifically, in Boeing’s second quarter
earnings release, the Company raised its 2004 and 2005 earnings guidance
to “reflect expected higher deliveries of commercial airplanes”. Boeing
boosted its delivery forecast for 2005 from 300 to between 315 and 320
airplanes. Further, the delivery forecast is sold out for 2004 and 92%
sold for 2005. Airbus has a backlog of over five years worth of
deliveries at current production rates. We continue to believe that
Magellan Aerospace is well positioned to benefit from the pending recovery
in the aerospace sector.
June 3, 2005
It has been quite a while since our last update on
Magellan Aerospace, reflecting the extended trough of the aerospace cycle.
This is most evident when one graphs the Company’s margins. They have
formed a saw-tooth pattern indicating a lumpy bottoming process with
several false starts for what seems like an eternity for long suffering
investors. Declining revenue, rising raw material costs and a
strengthening Canadian dollar have made the conditions extremely
difficult. As the industry finally began to recover, the new business that
the Company had won required start-up expenses and entailed a learning
process, which has hampered a return to profitability.
Magellan’s balance sheet has also worked against the
Company through the trough of the cycle. The Company’s debt load was not
extreme, but acquisitions and working capital requirements necessitated a
convertible debenture issue, a common share issue, a rights offering and,
mostly recently, a private placement of convertible preferred shares. In
the press release announcing the closing of the convertible preferred
share offering, it was noted that the Company’s Chairman, Murray Edwards,
subscribed for $10 million of the $20 million issue. It appears that Mr.
Edwards’ confidence in the Company is unwavering.
The convertible preferred share issue, which closed
May 27, 2005, was a particularly important milestone because it allowed
the Company to refinance its bank credit agreement. The uncertainty of the
negotiations had been overhanging the stock since the Company had required
a waiver from its lenders to remain in compliance with covenants in its
operating and long-term credit facilities. The new $155 million facility
will bear interest at LIBOR plus 1.0%, reduced from LIBOR plus 4.5% on the
previous credit agreement. How was the Company able to obtain such terms?
Murray Edwards has personally fully guaranteed the credit facility in
exchange for a fee of 0.1% per annum of the maximum amount. We believe
that this essentially eliminates any financial risk from the Company.
Thankfully, Magellan Aerospace now has the financial wherewithal to focus
on its operations.
We continue to believe that the aerospace cycle has
bottomed, which eventually will be reflected in Magellan’s financial
results. We would point to the slew of Boeing and Airbus jet orders that
we have seen recently. According to Boeing’s website, the Company has
received 223 net new orders for the year through May 24, compared to 272
net orders for all of 2004. In response, Boeing stock has appreciated to
within 10% of its all-time high. Similarly, we would expect a recovery in
Magellan’s stock price as the financial results turn the corner.
June 16, 2006
To suggest that Magellan Aerospace has faced an
extended cycle trough is an understatement. Record commercial aircraft
orders, strong profitability from Middle Eastern and Asian airlines and
solid defense spending indicate that the cycle has turned. However, new
project ramps and the high Canadian dollar have masked operational and
financial improvements at Magellan.
In the first quarter of 2006, Magellan reported
revenue of $137.0 million compared to $144.9 million a year ago. After
adjusting for foreign exchange fluctuations and the shutdown of the
Company’s Fort Erie plant revenue grew by 6.4% year over year. Although
Magellan reported a small loss of $658,000 or $0.01 per share, we were
encouraged to see $9.7 million of EBITDA in the quarter, or $0.11 per
share.
We have seen the shares dip recently due to the
general market malaise and some noise surrounding the Airbus A380.
Unfortunately, Airbus announced six-month delivery delays for its
superjumbo jet. Airbus blamed installation difficulties with wiring
harnesses, huge bundles of thousands of wires that control aircraft
systems, in-flight entertainment systems, lights, air-conditioning and
other key electronics. Shares in Airbus’ parent company EADS dropped by
almost 30% on this announcement. However, the impact on Magellan is
relatively minor. We estimate that Magellan’s A380 contracts are for
approximately $25 million per year. On sales of almost $600 million, this
equates to only 4% of total revenue, which is a relatively minor hiccup.
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