| January 24, 2003
Since our original comment on E-L Financial, the Company has reported
financial results for the first nine months of fiscal 2002. Over the
course of this period, revenue increased 7% to $995.6 million from
$932.1 million. On a segmented basis, portfolio investments accounted
for 2%, general insurance accounted for 56% and life insurance accounted
for 42% of total revenue, which was essentially unchanged from 2001.
Again for the first nine months of the year, net earnings declined
slightly to $25.3 million or $6.59 per share in 2002 from $25.8 million
or $6.71 per share in 2001. If we include investment gains in the net
earnings calculation, ELF earned $44.7 million or $11.64 per share
compared to $47.2 million or $12.29 per share. On a segmented basis,
46.6% of net income in 2002 was attributable to general insurance
operations compared to 40.8% in 2001. Further, 28.5% of net income in
2002 was attributable to life insurance operations compared to 39.3% in
the previous year.
Thus far in 2002, the Company's operations generated cash of $57.1
million after consuming $62.8 million in 2001. ELF used the cash flow to
add to the Company's considerable investment portfolio. As at September
30, ELF's investments totaled $591 million and the Company's insurance
subsidiaries' portfolios totaled almost $3.3 billion.
Besides E-L Financial's quarterly earnings releases, there have been
no new significant developments. The Company continues to pay a small
dividend and management maintains its low profile. We believe that ELF
remains undervalued, currently trading at only 70% of its book value of
$329 per share. A catalyst, such as a dividend increase or a share
buyback, would rekindle the interest of current and prospective
shareholders.
April 4, 2003
The Honourable Henry N.R. Jackman has resigned as Chairman and
President of E-L Financial. Not surprising, the Board of Directors has
elected Duncan Jackman as the new Chairman and President. However, we
don't expect any sudden or significant changes anytime soon. Although
the reins have been officially handed over, Duncan Jackman will most
likely quietly assume his new duties for the time being.
In addition to the succession announcement, E-L Financial recently
released operating and financial results for fiscal 2002. Net operating
income (before investment gains) declined to $7.09 per share from $9.77
in the comparable period last year. Including investments gains,
earnings per share fell to $13.41 in 2002 from $20.10 in 2001.
Unfortunately, gains in the Portfolio Investment segment were offset by
declines in both the General Insurance and Life Insurance segments.
Although the audited financial statements have not yet been
published, some rough calculations demonstrate a significant valuation
discount. For example, take E-L Financial's 2001 book value of $326 per
share and add 2002 earnings of $13.41, less $0.50 in dividends. Based on
this simple math, E-L Financial is currently trading at 0.6 times its
2002 book value of approximately $339 per share. As a comparison,
Great-West Lifeco recently paid $44.50 per share for Canada Life. The
purchase price implied a price to book multiple of approximately 1.9
times, which is also consistent with the average multiple across the
life insurance sector. Further, E-L Financial's net asset value,
calculated using the "sum-of-the-parts" method, is
significantly higher than book value. We can fine-tune these
calculations once the audited financial statements are published, but
suffice it to say, E-L Financial trades at a large discount relative to
its peers.
The discussion above explains why we are less interested in the
Company's potential to generate income than the opportunity to unlock
shareholder value through various other means. Duncan Jackman's
promotion is just the first step in this process. As we have discussed
before, acquisitions, mergers or spin-offs are possible. Dividend
increases and share buybacks are also feasible. Although major
initiatives are unlikely in the immediate future, positive developments
should materialize once Duncan Jackman settles in. This investment is
definitely one for the long haul.
April 4, 2004
E-L Financial's stock has had a nice run over the past twelve months,
increasing from a low of $220 to reach a high of $350 in February. The
insurance industry has experienced good pricing power over the past year
and this has fueled the run in both life and property and casualty
insurance stocks. In 2003 the Company reported net operating income
(before investment gains) of $11.17 per share compared to $6.08 per
share in 2002. Including investment gains, ELF reported earnings of
$12.20 compared to $12.40 the previous period. We believe that the
reduced reliance on investment gains indicate that 2003 earnings are of
higher quality. We estimate that book value, after the payment of the
small $0.50 per share dividend, has grown to approximately $350 per
share.
Examining segmented data, we see that general insurance revenue
increased 25% to reach $962.9 million and life insurance revenue
increased approximately 15% to reach $668.9 million. Net income for the
general insurance segment declined 8.5% to $20.3 million. Earnings for
this division were negatively impacted when ELF realized a loss on
investments of $13.3 million for the year. Excluding this loss, general
insurance earnings would have totaled $33.6 million, implying a growth
rate of 52%. This demonstrates a unique aspect of the insurance
industry; investment gains and losses are part of the normal course of
business but the timing decision lies with management. Net earnings in
the life insurance division showed a 21.4% increase to reach $14.1
million for the year.
Although the Company has yet to announce any major initiatives, the
market has at least begun to notice this undervalued stock. Now that the
discount to book value has closed, we expect that the discount to NAV
will continue to narrow. We believe that ELF's net asset value could
fall within a range of $450 to $500 per share but it is difficult to be
more precise in our estimate. Should Empire Life be put up for sale, a
bidding war for one of last free-standing life insurers could result in
a significant premium to book value. As long as insurance pricing
remains firm and the stock market holds its gains, ELF should continue
to perform well.
April 30, 2004
As we reported in our last comment, ELF earned $12.20 per share
including investment gains in 2003 compared to $12.40 the previous year.
Just before the annual general meeting on April 29, the Company released
its first quarter results for fiscal 2004. ELF earned $3.82 per share
compared to $2.89 per share for the comparable period last year, an
increase of 32%. Including investment gains, ELF earned $6.24 per share
compared to $4.41 per share, an increase of 41%. The bulk of the
increase in operating earnings came from the General Insurance division,
as net income increased 74% to $13.9 million from $8.0 million last
year. We believe that these results bode well for the full 2004 fiscal
year.
Along with the first quarter earnings, ELF announced the declaration
of a special dividend of $24 per share payable to shareholders of record
on May 13, 2004. The dividend is payable $7.20 in cash and $16.80 in
stock (1 common share for every 21.42857 common shares held based on a
value of $360 per common share). The special dividend will allow ELF to
recover a $30.7 million refundable dividend tax credit. While this
special dividend might have been largely tax driven, we appreciate being
able to put some cash back in our pocket. Although it is too early to
tell, it is possible that ELF management may be on a new, more
aggressive tact of value creation for shareholders. While no longer dirt
cheap, we still believe that ELF has some room to appreciate towards its
net asset value of approximately $450 to $500.
April 15, 2005
We have just received our copy of E-L Financial’s 2004 annual report
and the details indicate a very profitable year for the insurance
underwriter. Net income, excluding investment gains grew an impressive
121% from $42.9 million to $94.8 million. The results are even more
remarkable when the investment gains are included. Net income including
gains grew from $46.9 million in 2003 to $129.9 million in 2004, an
increase of almost 180%. This equates to earnings per share of $31.91 in
2004 compared to $11.66 in fiscal 2003. At current price levels the
stock trades below 12 times earnings and only 0.95 times the Company’s
book value of $394 per share.
On a segmented basis, we can see that ELF’s general insurance
operations really drove the results. Net income for this segment increased
from $20 million in 2003 to $84 million in 2004 on the back of improved
underwriting results and solid investment gains. The segment’s combined
ratio (a measure of underwriting profitability or total expenses divided
by net premiums earned) dropped below 100.0 to 97.0 in fiscal 2004. The
swing to profitability was driven by rate increases and a reduction in
claims frequency. On the life insurance segment side of the business, net
income doubled from $14 million to $28 million. Better results for wealth
management and individual insurance product lines and a large jump in
capital and surplus from a rising equity market led to the year over year
improvement.
In terms of relative valuation, ELF trades at a discount to its book
value despite the fact that other Canadian insurers are trading at
approximately twice this metric. We don’t believe ELF will reach this type
of multiple due to the illiquid nature of the Company, but we certainly
don’t think the stock should trade below book value. Although the chances
are low, the sale of either the Dominion of Canada General Insurance
Company or the Empire Life Insurance Company at a price more reflective of
current market multiples would energize this stock. In the meantime,
management is creating shareholder value through profitable underwriting
and successful investing.
December 23, 2005
E-L Financial has been quite a sleeper pick for the ABC Funds in 2005;
it has appreciated almost 55% year to date without any fanfare. The share
price was driven by solid financial results as all three segments
performed well. It is important to note that due to an accounting change,
portfolio investments are now reported at fair market value with changes
in market value recognized in income in the period in which the change
occurs. Although future earnings may appear to be more volatile, the new
earnings number will more closely reflect the economic value created or
lost through portfolio investments in each particular quarter.
For the first nine months of the year, total net income grew to $49.79
per share from $32.56 per share, an increase of 53%. On a segmented basis,
the results are equally impressive. Income from corporate investments
increased 65% to $95.0 million from $57.7 million. Profits from the
general insurance division increased 46% to $80.5 million from $55.1
million. Finally, earnings from the life insurance division increased 58%
to $28.6 million from $18.1 million. Book value now totals approximately
$440, so the stock trades at a 20% premium to book. However, we believe
that the Company’s net asset value is substantially higher than book
value, perhaps as high as $600 to $650 per share. Patient investors should
continue to benefit as the Company quietly goes about its business and
creates additional shareholder value.
May 5, 2006
After attending E-L Financial’s annual general meeting of shareholders,
we can provide an update on the recently completed fiscal year. In 2005
total premiums reached $1.6 billion up 4% from $1.543 billion in 2004. Net
income totaled $130.4 million or $37.59 per share compared to $91.4
million or $26.99 per share. Including gains from the substantial
corporate investment portfolio, net earnings were $86.68 per share in 2005
compared to $62.67 per share in 2004.
On a segmented basis, the Dominion of Canada General Insurance Company,
ELF’s property and casualty division, reported solid results. Net income
for 2005 was $139.2 million compared to $83.7 million a year ago. The
results were driven by a lower combined ratio of 90.8% versus 97.0% in
2004 as the hard market (a period of premium rate increases and low claims
frequency) continued in 2005. Additionally, strong equity markets led to
the realization of $25 million of gains over the course of the year. All
told, the division reported an excellent return on average equity of
25.2%. However, management indicated that the market was beginning to
soften, with average premiums declining and claims frequency rising.
ELF’s life insurance division, the Empire Life Insurance Company,
reported lower net income of $30.6 million compared to $35.1 million in
2004. The results were negatively impacted by reserve strengthening to
reflect lower interest rates and other changes in actuarial assumptions.
On a more positive note, total assets under administration grew 15% in
2005 to reach $5.8 billion. Segregated fund assets were up 29% due to good
equity returns and cash inflows. General fund assets rose 5% due to growth
in the life insurance product line.
Now that ELF trades at approximately 1.3 times its book value of $450
per share, it is important to revisit the valuation. We believe that a sum
of the parts valuation is the most appropriate way to value the Company.
Property and casualty companies with a good return on equity currently
trade at almost twice book value. Life insurance companies also tend to
trade at a similar multiple. We are comfortable valuing ELF’s investment
portfolio at fair market value as reported in the financial statements.
Using this methodology, ELF still trades at a discount to its net asset
value of $650 to $700 per share. Therefore, we are willing to continue to
hold the stock unless we see signs of a dramatic softening in the property
and casualty market.
April 27, 2007
As the shares of E-L Financial grind higher, we have updated our models
after the release of the Company’s 2006 financial results. Total premiums
written increased to $1.629 billion from $1.601 billion in 2005. Total
revenues increased to $2.321 billion from $2.201 billion the previous
year. More impressively, net income (including investment gains) increased
26.8% from $293.7 million or $86.68 per share to $372.5 million or $109.97
per share. Excluding investment gains, net income increased 8% to $141.1
million or $40.44 per share from $$130.4 million or $37.59 per share the
previous year.
ELF’s General Insurance division reported net income from underwriting
of $104 million compared to $119 million as the property and casualty
markets softened in 2006. A softer market is generally characterized by
declining earned premiums due to pricing and rising claim costs. These
trends are expected to continue in 2007. However, the division was swung
onside by gains on sales of investments of $46 million compared to $20
million the year previously. Bottom line, the General Insurance division
earned $150 million in 2006, compared to $139 million in 2005, an increase
of 7.9%.
Life Insurance showed a tremendous improvement in 2006. Net income was
$20 million compared to nil in 2005. Including the amortization of
investment gains and losses, the Life Insurance division reported net
income of $46 million compared to $24 million in 2005, an increase of over
90%. The Company pointed to lower reserve strengthening and improved
claims frequency and severity. The Capital and Surplus Wealth Management
segment improved year over year due to the strong performance of the
equity markets.
At the corporate level, ELF’s investment portfolio reported net income
of $177 million compared to $131 million, an increase of 35%. Although the
gain on sale of investments increased to $14 million from $10 million in
2005, the bulk of the gains came from the change in unrealized
appreciation of portfolio investments account. The portfolio gained $97
million in 2006 compared to $65 million a year ago. Interestingly, on
October 17, the Company raised $100 million from the sale of 4.75% First
Preference Shares, which was then invested in equities. ELF has a sizeable
amount of money, approximately $520 million, invested in related vehicles,
such as closed-end funds. Additionally, management disclosed that $210
million is invested with third party investment managers.
We value insurance companies based on the relationship between price to
book value and return on equity. Intuitively this makes sense; a company
that can generate a higher return on each dollar of equity should trade at
a greater premium to the book value of this equity. Based on our work, we
believe that ELF should trade approximately 1.5 to 1.6 times its book
value. Adjusted for the First Preference shares, we believe that book
value is around $545 per share. This gives us a theoretical value in the
range of approximately $820 to $875 per share. Even with the recent share
price strength, we therefore believe that the shares represent decent
value.
April 4, 2008
E-L Financial has not been immune to the recent credit crisis and lack of confidence in financial institutions. The shares have declined from a high of $750 reached in April 2007 to $530 today, a drop of approximately 30%. Thankfully, E-L Financial avoided being caught up in the ABCP mess and “anticipates no direct impact from these investments on its future financial condition”.
Despite the absence of ABCP on the Company’s books, the financial results were negatively impacted by the difficult insurance and investment environment in 2007. Total written premiums were essentially flat year over year at $1.63 billion. However, total revenues dipped from $2.32 billion in 2006 to $2.16 billion in 2007. A more dramatic decline occurred at the net income level, which declined from $372.5 million or $109.97 per share to $210.7 million or $60.29 per share.
The decline in net income from E-L Financial’s corporate investment segment had the largest impact on the financial results. The Company recorded a loss of $20 million in 2007 on United Corporation Limited (TSX:UNC), a publicly listed closed-end investment company, compared to a gain of $57 million in 2006. Incidentally, shares of UNC declined just over 11% after several years of strong performance. Additionally, new accounting regulations prevented the Company from reporting the change in unrealized appreciation of portfolio investments in consolidated statements of income, compared to a gain of $97 million in 2006. All told, net income from the corporate investment segment declined from $177 million in 2006 to $22 million in 2007.
E-L Financial’s Dominion of Canada General Insurance Company demonstrated decent investment performance offset by a softening of the insurance market. Net income for 2007 was $144.6 million compared to $149.5 million a year earlier. Return on average equity was still an impressive 18.9% versus 22.3%. Dominion reported investment gains of $99.5 million compared to $45.6 million the previous year. Underwriting deteriorated in 2007, with a combined ratio (total expenses divided by net premiums earned) of 102.9% compared to 93.5% in 2006 as claims severity and frequency increased. We expect this trend to continue in 2008, where gains in the investment portfolio will offset a more difficult underwriting environment.
The Empire Life Insurance Company division reported net income of $54.7 million in 2007 compared to $57.5 million in 2006. Adjusting for minority interests, Empire contributed to $43.6 million to E-L Financial’s bottom line in 2007 compared to $45.8 million in 2006. Again, weakness in its three product lines (wealth management, employee benefits and individual insurance) were partially offset by increased investment income and reduced income taxes.
With the decline in year over year net income, related to both softening insurance markets and changes in accounting regulations, it is not surprising that the shares have come under some pressure. However, with book value of $622 (adjusted for two series of preferred shares) and net earnings of $60.29 per basic share, we believe that the shares are oversold. At current price levels the shares are trading at 0.85 times book value and below 9 times trailing earnings. As fears in the credit market abate, investors will eventually return to high quality financial names. Investors just need to be patient in the current environment.
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