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March 10, 2006 Proving
that you don’t have to be in the oil and gas or metals and mining sector
to generate blow out numbers, Canam Group recently reported financial
results for fiscal 2005. The Company earned $38.7 million or $0.96 per
share in 2005, compared to a loss of $5.9 million or $0.17 per share a
year ago. The return to profitability was achieved through sales growth
of 4.8% to $711.5 million, despite the negative impact of the
strengthening Canadian dollar. Gross profit increased 49% to $175.1
million in 2005 and EBITDA grew to $93.7 million, up more than 70% from
last year. Marc Dutil’s focus on the bottom line, through cost control
and emphasis on higher margin, value-added products is materializing
with tangible results. With a backlog of $210 million, up from $138
million a year ago, we look for continued strong performance in 2006.
Two other items of note occurred in the quarter.
Canam announced the redemption of its Convertible Unsecured Subordinate
Debentures in the amount of $27 million, bearing interest of 9.25%. On
the conference call, management suggested that Company’s effective
interest rate would fall to approximately 5.5% after redeeming this high
cost, quasi debt instrument. Second, the Company’s Board of Directors
announced the resumption of a quarterly dividend in the amount of $0.04
per share for the first time since 2002.
Interestingly, while its share price has
appreciated almost 50% from our original purchase, Canam Group is still
not expensive. At approximately $9.00 per share, the stock actually
trades below 10 times last years earnings. With the dividend
announcement, investors now receive a yield of 1.8% on their shares, not
an insignificant amount. The Company is well positioned to continue to
benefit from strength in the non-residential construction markets. In
fact, Nucor Corporation, a US-based competitor, released a positive
profit warning today indicating, “overall demand and, in particular, the
non-residential construction markets continue to improve”. Relative to
its peers, there is plenty of room for multiple expansion as new
investors discover this under followed and undervalued name.
August 18, 2006
On August 2, Canam Group reported results for the second quarter of
2006 that seemed to have disappointed some investors. However, we tend
to look through temporary blips or unusual events that can occur from
time to time. Our investments are always made based on the longer term
fundamentals and the intrinsic value of the underlying business.
To recap the quarter, consolidated sales dipped slightly to $172.2
million compared to $180.3 million in the second quarter of 2005. The
gross profit margin totaled 22.1% in the second quarter of 2006 compared
with 23.4% in 2005. The EBITDA margin totaled 11.6% of sales compared to
13.0% of sales a year ago. Net earnings were $9.9 million or $0.22 per
share compared to net earnings of $7.9 million or $0.19 per share for
the same period in 2005.
So what caused the flattish sales and the weaker gross and EBITDA
margins? Management indicated that the appreciation of the Canadian
dollar, and difficult weather conditions, especially during May, led to
the softer results. They also firmly indicated that delayed deliveries
were returning to normal and that the results would show an improvement.
Given management’s excellent track record over the past several
quarters, we are willing to give them the benefit of the doubt. At
current price levels, the stock is trading at only ten times forward
earnings.
We believe that the outlook for Canam Group remains positive for the
balance of the year. Non-residential construction, especially in
Alberta, continues to trend upwards. The value of non-residential
permits issued in March, May and June were above $2 billion in each
month. In the industrial segment of non-residential construction,
permits hit the highest level in 17 years, related to the surge in
activity in Alberta.
Not surprisingly, these macro trends are evident in Canam’s backlog,
which totaled $237 million at the end of the quarter compared with $180
million last year.
December 22, 2006
We have finally seen the overhang lifted from Canam Group’s shares.
Marcel Dutil, Chairman of the Board and CEO of Canam Group, had been
trying to sell a large amount of his stock since April. Unfortunately,
when “the Street” knows that a large block is available investors
typically demand a significant discount to the market price. Canam’s
stock slowly drifted lower from the $11.00 level as the spread between
buyers and the seller widened. Thankfully, on December 20, Canam
reported that the sale of Mr. Dutil’s 3,500,000 share block at $8.75 had
been completed successfully. It is important to note that Marcel Dutil
still holds 8,018,541 shares, which represents approximately 16.4% of
the Company.
Looking at the metrics, we can see why Mr. Dutil was so reluctant to
part with stock at a discount. Currently, Canam trades at only 9.4 times
2006 consensus earnings and approximately 8.5 times 2007 consensus
earnings. At 1.3 times book value and six times EBITDA, the stock is
undervalued.
The attractive valuation is supported by a positive outlook with good
visibility. Recent contract wins include an $11.5 million order for a
casino in Alberta and two warehouses in Quebec, a $40 million contract
to supply steel for the New York Yankee’s stadium and a $70 million
contract for the New York Mets’ new ballpark. Spending on
non-residential construction and infrastructure, including bridge work,
looks firm in 2007. In fact, Canam’s backlog has increased to $297
million from $226 million, a 31% increase year over year. We look
forward to a solid 2007 from this Company.
March 16, 2007
As we surmised in our last comment on Canam Group, the sale of Marcel
Dutil’s block removed the overhang on the stock. The shares have
recovered almost 25% from their 52-week low of $8.15, reached early
November 2006. In fact, Canam’s shares have actually risen slightly
through the late-February correction on the TSX. Investors have
correctly assumed that government spending on bridges, roads and
infrastructure is not highly correlated to global growth expectations or
the US sub-prime housing market.
The share price advance was further supported by the Company’s fourth
quarter and fiscal 2006 results, released on March 6, 2006. Sales
increased 8.4% to $740.6 million in 2006 from $683.4 million in 2005.
For the full year, Canam reported net earnings of $40.7 million or $0.88
per share compared to $38.7 million or $0.96 per share in the comparable
period a year ago. The year over year decline in reported net earnings
was exacerbated by $7.7 million in pre-tax charges related to foreign
currency contracts, plant closings and losses on the disposal of fixed
assets. This cut approximately $0.08 to $0.10 per share from the years’
earnings. Adjusted for this charge, earnings would have been very
similar on a year over year basis.
The fiscal 2006 report also updated the Company’s backlog, which has
grown 37% to $287 million from $210 million one year ago. In the first
three months of 2007, several significant contracts were added to the
backlog. The largest of these was a contract to build the structure of
the New York Giants’ and the Jets’ football stadium. Fabrication for the
$100 million job will begin in the summer of 2007 and will be completed
by the end of 2008. Canam was also recently awarded a contract for 1,575
tons of joists and girders for Loblaws’ new distribution centre in Ajax,
Ontario.
Despite the nice share price recovery, the stock is still relatively
inexpensive for a Company that generated a 13.5% return on equity in
2006. Today, it is harder and harder to find solid businesses such as
Canam Group, that trade at 11 times unadjusted 2006 earnings and 1.4
times book value. With a growing backlog and two solid years of
financial performance, we remain optimistic for 2007.
July 27, 2007
Our last comment on Canam Group highlighted the successful placement
of Marcel Dutil’s block that had been overhanging the stock and the
relief rally that ensued. We also discussed the Company’s attractive
valuation at 11 times trailing earnings and 1.4 times book value. Since
then, the shares have continued their ascent, moving almost 30% higher.
Construction and infrastructure plays have obviously regained favour
with investors and funds, as we discussed in our update on another Value
Favourite: Polaris Minerals.
So what other stock-specific events have been driving the shares
higher? On March 23, the Company announced a small, but significant,
acquisition of a 49% interest in United Steel Structures Limited (USSL),
a bridge and structural steel plant in Guangzhou, China. For the
relativity small investment of US$9.2 million, Canam now has an interest
in one of the fastest growing regions in the world. The Company then
announced a second significant acquisition on July 17, this time south
of the border. The Company purchased the majority of the assets of
Eastern Bridge, located in Claremont, New Hampshire. Although the
Company reported sales of only US$10 million last year from its 180,000
sq. ft. plant, the acquisition was necessary for Canam to bolster its
physical presence in the United States due to “Buy American”
legislation. We like these acquisitions for the same reason: both
involved a relatively low capital expense in exchange for access to a
strategically important market.
Canam also reported operating and financial results for the first
quarter of 2007, which were cheered by investors. In the seasonally weak
quarter, the Company reported consolidated sales of $161.1 million, up
8.3% compared with $148.8 million last year. Reported net earnings of
$6.4 million, or $0.13 per share, increased 17.1% from $5.4 million, or
$0.13 per share in the previous year. We expect a solid performance in
the second half of the year for two key reasons. First, the Company’s
order back log was $411 million at the end of the first quarter of 2007,
compared to $223 million in 2006, an increase of 84%. Second, the
Company’s results in the third and fourth quarters of 2006 were
abnormally weak due to competitive pressures, accounting treatment of
foreign currency transactions, expenses related to plant closing and
losses on the disposal of fixed assets. On a year over year basis, the
results for the balance of 2007 will look much better and should support
the recent share price move.
October 5, 2007
It has been just over two and a half years since we made our original
investment in Canam Group. We initiated our position on March 30, 2005,
when the Company raised $40 million at a price of $5.75 per share.
Subsequently, we added to our holdings in the open market but managed to
keep our average cost in the $6.00 to $6.50 range.
In the ensuing years we witnessed some very important strategic
changes and corporate developments. Under the leadership of Marc Dutil,
management shifted the Company’s focus from revenue growth to profit
growth. The Company streamlined its operations, sold unprofitable assets
and became much more disciplined when bidding on contracts. Importantly,
Canam’s founders also converted their multiple voting shares into common
shares, which was well-received by the minority shareholders.
Financial statement analysis confirmed that management’s efforts
translated into results. Although tons of construction products declined
from 365,965 in 2004 to 336,819 in 2006, revenue increased from $649.7
million to $740.6 million. Over this three year period, the gross margin
improved from 18.5% to 23.5%. Net earnings from continuing operations
improved from a loss of $9.0 million in 2004 to profits of $41.8 million
in 2006. On a per share basis, earnings from continuing operations
dramatically improved from ($0.26) to $0.90.
From a valuation perspective, Canam has traditionally traded in a
range between 8 and 10 times earnings during the peak of the
non-residential construction cycle. However, the higher profit margins
and the removal of the multiple voting class of stock deserve a better
earnings multiple. We believe that a range between 10 and 12 times
earnings is more realistic and is more inline with the Company’s peers.
Currently the 2008 consensus estimate is $1.30 per share, which implies
a target price of $15.60 for the stock at the upper end of the trading
range.
Because the shares are relatively thinly traded, we made the
difficult decision to begin to liquidate our holdings as the stock
approached our target. Essentially, the profitability had improved, the
trading discount had narrowed, investors were excited about the
potential to rebuild bridges across North America and the analysts were
raising their targets. Our discipline as value investors compels us to
take advantage of other’s bravado. We have sold our entire position in
Canam Group, more than doubling our money over the course of two and a
half years.
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